Donovan McNabb is a Washington Redskin.  Anquan Boldin is a Baltimore Raven.  Santonio Holmes is a New York Jet.  And as per usual, I will sate your craving for fantasy football news by talking about the potential fallout from these deals.

Note: half-way through writing this, I woke up to the news that Brandon Marshall was a Dolphin.  He’ll also be included in this article.

Another note: while I was editing this, Ted Ginn got dealt to the San Francisco 49ers.  He’s a late-round flier again.  I don’t actually feel like writing up a whole thing about him.

Donovan McNabb-

Donovan is in a position to command a relatively solid team, and can put up statistics that reflect this.  While people are dismissing the Redskins offense, you can’t ignore the fact that they have some strong skill players on offense.  I’ll go into that in greater detail in the next section, for now though, let’s focus on McNabb.

The thing about Donovan McNabb, is that we all know he’s capable of being a QB that can sit between Tom Brady and Drew Brees, at least statistically…but he can’t do it on his own.  He always needs somebody else motivating him, whether it’s the GM, by drafting Kevin Kolb, or the coach by benching him for a game.

In all likelihood, he will have that motivation this season, and can put up a season that matches his enthusiasm.  In terms of where to draft Donovan, he fits in right below the top tier QBs (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers).  If McNabb doesn’t immediately begin feuding with the ‘Skins or their fans, the potential for a top-5 year is there for McNabb.

The Rest of the Washington Redskins-

The Redskins presently have a trio of players that have been top-ten at their position.  Those players are Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis.  Portis isn’t looking at a huge statistical boost from McNabb’s presence and he will probably be a good bargain come draft day (a la 2007).  So keep an eye out for him as a great value pick.

Santana Moss is going to be the biggest beneficiary from McNabb.  Moss remains a fast, slippery WR that is at his best when he’s going vertically.  You know, like that DeSean Jackson guy.  He totaled 1167 yards and 9 TDs with McNabb last season.  I could see Santana Moss putting up similar numbers.

Cooley is capable of returning to 2005-2008 form, a stretch where he averaged 786 yards and 5.5 TDs per season.  McNabb hasn’t always been particularly generous to his tight ends (before Brent Celek, the best fantasy season a TE has had under his offense belongs to LJ Smith, to the tune of 611 yards and 5 TDs), so you may want to wait on Cooley during the draft.  He had an injury-plagued season in 2009, so he’s likely to be available at a discount anyway, but unless he demonstrates excellent chemistry with McNabb in the preseason, tailor expectations.

The Philadelphia Eagles Offense-

You know that DeSean Jackson guy?  If you’re in a keeper league and get a good offer, trade him.  Seriously, though, Jackson slides way down the WR rankings.  He was probably going to be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this upcoming season, but he slides back to the WR3 rank.  Draft him alongside guys like Jerricho Cotchery and Devery Henderson.

Brent Celek should stay where he is on your draft board.  It’s a remarkably deep field of TEs in 2010, so don’t draft Celek where he landed last year, as part of that Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark crew.  A 750 yard, 5-8 TD season is very achievable, and probably beatable, stat line for him.

Jason Campbell-

Despite the unanimous dissatisfaction with Jason Campbell…he’s actually a very serviceable QB.  Over the last three seasons, he has always completed over 60% of his passes and has had a 1+ TD:INT ratio.  If he gets traded (especially to Carolina), he could be a strong fantasy backup or half of a QB platoon.

Anquan Boldin-

Personally, I’m one of those guys who buys low on WRs who change teams.  For every New England Patriot Randy Moss, there’s three or four Seattle Seahawk Deion Branches, Seattle Seahawk TJ Houshmandzadehs or former-Seattle Seahawk Darrell Jacksons.   For me, there’s too much risk associated with Boldin, relative to where he is likely to go during drafts.

While Joe Flacco is a solid quarterback, he’s deeply entrenched in a talented (and run-heavy) team with Derrick Mason, Ray Rice and a reemerging Todd Heap.  He probably isn’t going to be in a position to have a 4500 yard, 30 TD season.  Because of that, Boldin probably won’t get a big enough cut of Flacco’s relatively limited production to keep himself as a WR1, or even a WR2.  Because of that, you should lower expectations for Boldin to the mid-WR3 range.

Santonio Holmes-

Santonio Holmes’ trade, as I’m sure you’ve read by now, was largely a message directed at Ben Roethlisberger.  That message is that you can only be a dirty SOB ON the field.  His move to the Jets is relatively big…but it’s being a bit overhyped (as every move by a non-Buffalo New York sports team is).  Keep in mind that Mark Sanchez is easily the worst starting QB not involved in a QB controversy.

Yeah, yeah, I know, he’s still young and he can grow into being a QB that isn’t horrible.  That doesn’t mean it’s not true right now.  He put up a Delhomme-like season in 2009, putting up 2444 yards, 12 TDs and 20 INTs (and 3 FLs) while completing just 53.8% of his passes.

Unless you’re expecting Sanchez to improve in a massive way, you’ve got to wonder how much of a share Holmes can get, especially with Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards all fighting for catches as well.  I don’t see Sanchez improving all that much, and because of that, I’m regarding Holmes as, at best, a Bye Week plug-in.

The Rest of the Steelers Offense-

Roethlisberger, for all his “indiscretions” remains a solid fantasy option (assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a long while, which probably won’t be the case).  While the loss of Santonio Holmes will hurt his production, he’s still worthy of being part of a platoon in 10-team single QB leagues.

The big thing about Holmes being moved is that some other WR is going to have to step up his game in order to replace him.  Roethlisberger is still more than capable of running a pass-happy offense, and it’s something the Steelers can still thrive with.  The 1200 yards receiving that Holmes had in 2009 aren’t going to go away…so who could possibly be the guy to replace him?

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, and we’ll just have to wait and see how the draft and preseason play out.  Though I will say to keep an eye on Mike Wallace.

Brandon Marshall-

My arguments against Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin largely hold up with Brandon Marshall.  Henne has potential, but he didn’t set the NFL ablaze in his first season as a starter (2878 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs).  Granted, Marshall had success with Kyle Orton, who is not on top of many Hall of Fame ballots, but Orton has a level of veteran savvy not found in Henne.  The Dolphins also remain a very run-heavy team with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, which further cuts into Henne’s, and Marshall’s, potential.

That said, Marshall is still a fantasy asset.  Unlike Boldin and Holmes, there really isn’t any competition from that Miami Dolphins receiving corps.  I would cap Henne’s production at around 3200 yards, which is enough to make Marshall useful, assuming he doesn’t end up getting suspended once again.  He’s likely to end up as a strong WR3, though he could clearly beat that out.  However, he’s still likely to be drafted by many as a WR1, and don’t be surprised if he ends up being drafted above guys like Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings.  He’s still valuable, but do not reach for him.

The Broncos Offense

The loss of Brandon Marshall hurts the Broncos (statistically speaking, at least) more than it helps the Dolphins.  The loss of Marshall is something that really impacts the entire Broncos offense.

First and foremost, it drops Kyle Orton’s value.  Orton had his first genuinely good season last year, putting up 3802 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs while starting all 16 games that season, and completing 62.1% of his passes.  Expect a strong dip in his numbers next season, probably to the tune of 3200 yards, 16 TDs, a mark that makes him a serviceable backup or plug-and-play, and nothing more.

The biggest thing, though, is that there is now a sweepstakes for who will become the top wideout in Denver.  There are basically four major candidates to watch out for.

Eddie Royal was one of the biggest surprises in 2008, putting up 980 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season.  Once Cutler got dealt to the Bears and Orton began helming the team, he fell deep down into the Box Scores.  While he failed to gel with Orton last year, his speed and playmaking abilities didn’t disappear.  He can potentially work his way back towards the top of the Broncos receiving corps on a Marshall-less team.

Eight-year veteran Jabar Gaffney set a career high in receiving yards last season, after being reunited with Josh McDaniels in Denver.  Granted, 732 yards and 2 TDs isn’t exactly a jaw-dropping stat line, but he’s not that far off from being fantasy-relevant.  He’s a potential last-round Hail Mary pick, depending on how the preseason plays out, though he could end up being a solid WR3 in deeper leagues.

Journeyman WR Brandon Lloyd is returning to the Broncos after playing just two games in 2009.  Even though he wasn’t stellar in those two games, he was good enough to get the Broncos to re-sign him.  He’s got history with Kyle Orton, and he has intermittently flashed legitimate skills throughout his career.  That said, him putting up anything close to Marshall-like numbers is extraordinarily unlikely…but still possible.

Last but not least is a WR in the draft.  We just have to wait and see what happens with the Broncos on draft day(s), but it’s something to watch for all my hardcore Fantasy Football brothers.

I know this comes a little late this week, so I will take that into consideration while I make these suggestions, but here are some players who are likely still available and have good value going forward.

Quarterback

Joe Flacco – Here is a guy no one expected much from last year, a rookie on a notoriously weak passing team without much in the way of new offensive weapons, yet if not for Matt Ryan, he is my Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now going into this season, Flacco again was passed over for other QBs, and if week 1 is any indication, he will again shatter expectations. Flacco was able to complete 60% of his passes for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in a game where his defense faltered and the pressure was on to elevate his team to a win.

Mark Sanchez – Going back to Flacco and Ryan, here is a rookie quarterback who jumped right out of the gates. Maybe colleges are finally preparing QBs enough to come in and make an instant impact, or maybe there have just been a select few unique guys the past couple of years. Either way, Sanchez’s week 1 performance is enough to pick him up in 12 team leagues, or 2 QB leagues.

Consider this week – Shaun Hill, Kerry Collins

Runningback

Mike Bell – was able to capitalize on the absence of Pierre Thomas, and rushed for 143 yards, good for second most amongst all rushers in week 1. With Thomas looking like he is still banged up, and coach Peyton talking like Bell has earned carries the rest of the season, Bell is both a great pickup for this week, and a strong add for the rest of the season. He should be owned in leagues of all sizes.

Michael Bush – Darren McFadden was just named the starter, but for the game, Justin Fargas was not active and Bush carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards, plunging in one TD from the goal line after big gains from McFadden. It is yet to be revealed if Bush will receive the goal line work or if McFadden was just tired for the play, but Bush provides excellent depth and can be a plug in several weeks this season.

Consider this week – Knowshon Moreno, Darren Sproles

Wide Receiver

Mario Manningham – After seeing his stat line, 3 catches for 58 yards, 1 TD, I was not overly impressed with Manningham. However, when I watched his sideline balance and poise while avoiding would-be tacklers on his TD catch and run, I can’t help but think that the Giants will reward him for his hard work. While he may not duplicate the yardage and TD this week, his value will only be on the rise going forward.

Terrell Owens – With just 3 targets in week 1, TO owners are probably down on him right now, and possibly panicked by his comments this week about the loss to NE. TO is a force, and was a Pro Bowler with many different quarterbacks, so there is no need to fear Trent Edwards’ limitations. If you can low-ball a TO owner in a trade, make it happen. This guy is going to come back, and come back with a vengeance.

Consider this week – Joey Galloway, Percy Harvin

Dallas Cowboys – Felix Jones

Boy things sure got shaken up in Dallas this off-season. I’m not going to talk about Roy Williams, since he…well…isn’t a sleeper. At first, I considered slotting in Patrick Crayton as my sleeper pick for Dallas, but his regressive production last year and competition from Miles Austin for playing time hinders his value. That said, I am going to choke up on the bat and make my pitch for Felix Jones.

In 5 games in 2008, Jones rushed for 266 yards on 30 attempts (8.9 ypc). Now that he is fully recovered from his toe injury, he is expected to double his touches per game. This will be a crowded backfield with Tashard Choice fighting for carries behind Marion Barber, but word is Jones will receive double digit carries per game next year. Never having more than 9 carries in a game, Jones managed 62, 76, and 96 yards in weeks 1, 3 and 5, respectively. He makes the most of his carries and, in addition to those big yardage games, broke off TDs, as well.

Something else of note is that Felix Jones will be the focal point of the Cowboys’ version of the Wildcat offense. While the Cowboys may not be planning on using their self-named “Razorback” offense too often, any chance of success cannot be ignored and any chance to give Felix the ball should be taken. Jones will make for a fantastic RB3 or flex player, as well as a decent complement to an RB1 or RB2. Should Barber get injured, however, Jones quickly rises to a lower RB1 in terms of potential.

Fantasyfootballcalculator.com currently has Felix Jones’ ADP at 67, making him the 32nd RB taken overall in 10 team leagues, often landing in the eighth round. Jones has too much upside to be so far down, and he makes a smart pick up in the 7th round, or even late 6th if you’re desperate for RB help.

New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw

I’m going over some SoS reports from fftoolbox.com, and there is a lot to like about the Giants passing game. Eli has the 7th best schedule for allowing fantasy points to QBs, while Jacobs and Bradshaw have the 13th most friendly schedule to RBs. The Giants offense has suffered as a whole with the loss of Plaxico Burress. And while Eli Manning has enough talent to keep defenses honest, he does not have the ability to take what he wants the way Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can. That being said, this could be Ahmad Bradshaw’s year.

Brandon Jacobs is the man in NY, but is yet to make it through a full season as a workhorse. Even so, the offense remains run-first during his absences. Even though Jacobs played in 13 games last season, his backup, Derrick Ward, managed to amass over 1400 yards of total offense as backup last season. With Ward set to be the starter in Tampa Bay, Bradshaw is penciled in as his successor. The Giants, with their run-heavy attack and Jacobs’ shaky history, expressed a lot of confidence in Bradshaw, passing on a RB during the draft until the fourth round.

While Bradshaw can be looked at as a handcuff to Brandon Jacobs, he fits the bill as a high-upside player that can be snatched in the mid-late rounds of your draft. If he’s available in the 9th round and you do not have a lot of faith in your RBs, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Bradshaw.

Philadelphia Eagles – DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson came in and had a solid rookie season for the Eagles, quickly asserting himself as McNabb’s top weapon, and hauling in 62 passes for over 900 yards. Word on the streets is that he has begun truly dedicating himself to football, and is reportedly running faster and is showing a more can-do attitude. He has had a year to adjust to the pros, get more acclimated to the playbook, build chemistry with his quarterback, and improve himself physically.

Despite all this, Jackson has the potential to slip in drafts. As a member of a team that constantly rotates other WRs into the top pass-catching spot, and as somebody who failed to make a splash last postseason, Jackson’s WR2 status and WR1 potential makes him a steal during the middle rounds of the draft. If he’s available, and you are looking for a WR, don’t be afraid to take him over a Hines Ward, Roy Williams, or, contrary to what Steve says, Donald Driver.

Washington Redskins – Ladell Betts

The Redskins have the 3rd most favorable rushing schedule of all the teams in the NFL, something likely to give a boost to Clinton Portis’ long-time backup, Ladell Betts. Betts has been known for his production as a backup, and has totaled a respectable 4.1 ypc in over 700 carries. A 9-game injury to Portis led to a 1,600 yard season for Betts, underlining his value as a handcuff to Portis owners.

Current word out of Redskins camp is that Coach Zorn has been keeping an eye out on Portis, and has picked up on some fatigue, courtesy of back-to-back 370+ touch seasons. While Portis owners will likely look to handcuff Betts by rounds 11-13, don’t be afraid to allot an open bench spot to Betts if he is available any later, as he is a safe bet to get good trash yardage when the Redskins have favorable matchups. Should Portis go down, Betts instantly becomes RB2 material.

Think back, if you will, to the New England Patriots, before Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Back when the Patriots were deep at the linebacker position.  Back when Tom Brady had to make people look good to win games.  Back before Eric Mangini ruined signal-“stealing” for everyone.  Back before all that, there was a revolving door of New England WRs who achieved fantasy relevance thanks to impressive QB play.  The 2009 Chicago Bears, in this way, bare a serious resemblance to the team from the Patriots’ Super Bowl years.  With the hyper-talented Jay Cutler helming an unsalted crew of landlubbers with questionable talent and minimal experience, it’s likely that at least one of them will float to the top, and give one lucky owner a decent fantasy WR.

The question, of course, is who?  The answer will likely come in a few months, when the preseason starts, when Jay actually begins building a rapport with his teammates in game-like situations.  That said, more than a few leagues are drafting already and it would just be lame for me to say “wait and see,” now wouldn’t it?  The somewhat obvious answer is Devin Hester, simply because he had a marginal degree of success last season, but I’m personally not buying into him.  A strong case can be made for any of the WRs behind him, and that’s where I’m going to be looking.

The guy I would be most willing to spend a pick on right now would be Johnny Knox.  During his time playing for Abilene Christian University, Knox totaled 30 TDs in 2007 and 2008, in no small part thanks to his lightning-quick 4.34 40-yard speed.  Thus far, he has shown some gumminess in his hands, which is a pleasant surprise coming from somebody likely on the midnight train to Special Teams.  The knock against Knox, though, is his relatively small stature.  At 6-0 even, and checking in at only 180 pounds, I doubt I’m the only one who envisions Knox getting jarred off-course by even the smallest touch from a defender.  Still, the big play ability is there, and that’s something we actually haven’t seen much of from Hester at the WR position.

If you’re in a deep competitive league drafting around now, the entire Chicago Bears’ receiving corps could very well be taken.  Somebody in that group of Knox, Juaquin Iglesias, Rashied Davis, Earl Bennett or Brandon Rideau is likely to get something around 800 yards and a handful of TDs (though they could easily exceed that if they actually have talent).  I’m not 100% positive it will be Knox.  But I’d bet on him over the others.  Consider him, and any other Chicago WR, a late-round flier.

Detroit Lions – Daunte Culepper

There are two things that always bring out the best in football players; revenge and money.  Daunte Culpepper’s career is at a crossroads, and this is probably his last chance to show that he can perform.  I’m sure he knows how close he is to the edge of the UFL pitfall.  In case you haven’t heard, the UFL doesn’t pay quite as well as the NFL does, and Daunte Culpepper wants to cash in.  As the on-paper starter for the Detroit Lions, he is looking at a decent pay day if he has a fair degree of success. 

In the three years Culpepper has spent away from Minnesota, he has been a member of three different teams and played at or below par on a consistent basis.  From 2006-2009, he has completed a humble 57% of his passes, and has an 11:14 TD:INT ratio.  Perhaps even worse, he has only rushed for 85 yards and 5 TDs over the past three years (three of those TDs came in one game), with a steady stream of injuries to his legs (knee, hammy) and shoulder.  His most recent season was easily the worst of his career, tallying 786 yards, 4 TDs, 6 INTs while completing just 52.2% of his passes. 

So why am I endorsing Culpepper?  The biggest reason is the simple fact he is back in “football shape,” for perhaps the first time since his catastrophic knee injury in 2005.  Even back when he was with the Miami Dolphins, people declared that Culpepper lacked work ethic, and had “team issues.”  For the first time since, there are plenty of reports discussing Culpepper’s renewed commitment to football.  The biggest thing being floated around at this time is his trim new figure, which comes from his losing 30 pounds.  Perhaps most interestingly is the serious confidence he has been talking with, “I feel this is the first time I’ve been 100% going into camp since 2004… I’ll continue to get better and better, and I felt better than I did in 2004. We’ll see what happens.”  Detroit coach Jim Schwartz concurs, “He was a marquee player in the league a few years ago, and then he had the knee injury and then a setback. He looks like he’s well on his way to getting back there.”

You also can’t ignore the generally good situation the Lions have offensively.  While the offensive line remains potentially terrible, having allowed over 50 sacks in every year since 2006, the various skill positions have become, possibly, their strongest since Barry Sanders’ retirement.  Obviously, the Lions have the Pop-Tart-like Calvin Johnson (he’s craaaazy good), but they also have a duo of semi-proven WRs in Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt alongside the talented-yet-injury-prone rookie, Derrick Williams.  They also drafted Brandon Pettigrew, who showed off that he is a better blocking TE than he is a pass-catcher which should help out pass-blocking a bit.  And Kevin Smith?  He’s still incredibly fast.

While this is all well and good, the QB position is particularly deep in Fantasy Football for 2009, and I would be insane to suggest you draft Culpepper as your starter in ten team, standard-scoring leagues.  That said, in sizable 2QB or 12-to-14 team leagues, Daunte is somebody I will be reaching for. 

Green Bay Packers – Donald Driver

Who built Stonehenge?  Are we alone in the universe?  Who really shot JFK?  Why is Donald Driver getting picked, on average, at 109^th overall?  These are among the world’s greatest mysteries.

In all seriousness, though, it absolutely perplexes me how a receiver looking for his sixth straight 1000 yard season is taken so late in the draft, behind Lance Moore, Hines Ward, Devin Hester, Lavernues Coles and Steve Breaston.  Nothing against any of these guys, but I don’t think any of them have outperformed Driver in terms of consistency and production in the last five years.  Granted, Driver has never been especially strong in the TD department.  He is yet to hit10 TDs on the season, and only pulled in 2 TDs in 2007.  Still, in terms of value, Donald Driver may very well be the biggest bargain in fantasy football this year.

Granted, this may be “the year” where he falls off the fantasy map.  He is 34, after all.  Still, he was 33 last year, and that didn’t keep him from putting up 1012 yards and 5 TDs.  For his draft position, he’s a top-flight WR3.  This is somebody I’m going for early and often.

Minnesota Vikings – Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is a bit of a trendy pick, and there’s good reason for it.  When you see news reports about how a team is redesigning their playbook for a single player, it’s easy to hop on the bandwagon.  But even so, the excitement over the uber-prospect’s potential hasn’t fully caught on in fantasy drafts.

Harvin’s incredible potential may or may not still be fresh in your mind from all the draft hype.  From his sticky hands to his electrifying speed, he oozes big play potential and Minnesota loves that.  The thing is, they already have a particularly speedy big-play receiver in Bernard Berrian (who averaged an insane 20.1 yards per reception in 2008).  This is where Harvin’s versatility comes in.  While playing for the University of Florida, he got numerous chances to show off his nearly utility-like skill, getting behind center for direct snapping and wildcattery (I made up that word, but so what?), doing reversals and lining up all over the place as a receiver. 

In terms of value, he’s a pretty good bargain for a high-profile rookie WR.  While experts often dissuade trigger-happy owners from chasing after the vogue rookie WRs, Harvin is coming late enough that he has the upside to put him over other players taken around him during drafts, such as Josh Morgan, fellow rookie Jeremy Maclin and the entire Giants receiving corps. 

His great versatility, at least in my mind, makes me think of the Vikings’ receivers as the Diet New England Patriots.  Because of Berrian’s established success as a deep threat, I foresee Harvin being assigned a bit more work in the short yardage game, giving him a bit of a boon in PPR leagues.  While rookie WRs can be seriously hit-or-miss, Harvin is as close to a sure thing as you can get at the WR position at that point in the draft.  I’d be willing to pencil him in as a strong bye week or matchup play if he ends up catching on with whoever the Minnesota QB is.  Somewhere around 800-900 total yards and a handful of TDs is very achievable. 

I’m going to apologize now for going out on such a limb here, but if you’re reading a sleeper guide, you should already know to skip over the Arizona Cardinals section.  That being said, let’s take a look at Kurt Warner.  In 2008, he started sixteen games.  That’s actually pretty remarkable.  While he played fourteen in 2007, looking a bit deeper tells a very different story; seven games in 2006, ten in 2005 and 2004, three in 2003, and seven in 2002.  It took seven seasons from for Kurt to start 16 games again and, let’s face it, he’s 37 years old.  Enter Matt Leinart.  Yes, that guy.  He currently holds an ADP of 211.25, according to MyFantasyLeague.com.  Leinart, according to his coach, Ken Whisenhunt, has matured over the years, and was spotted recently with Tom Brady.  When he chose to stay at USC, he was the likely choice for first overall pick (Alex Smith took his place), and had success in a pro-style offense.  Leinart has always had the tools, and he had the chance to show them in the infamous game against the Bears (who were what he thought they were), where he worked over their vaunted defense until fumbles and kick returns cost them the game.  I’m not saying this is a spectacular pick for anyone, because it does rely on the incumbent’s injury.  But it is, in my opinion, inevitable that Leinart will get some playing time this season.  So if you find yourself with a Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Phillip Rivers and have room to maneuver at your backup quarterback position, then this is worth consideration as Leinart will likely be either a strong trade chip, a solid placeholder in multi-QB leagues or a great keeper in dynasty leagues. 

Saint Louis Rams – Steven Jackson

Let’s face it, the Rams were not a good team last year.  They’ve worked on improving their defense and they’ve been scrambling to put together a better offensive line.  Nonetheless, their QB is a year older, and they just lost their top receiver.  This may look good for Avery and Looker, but they’ve lost their tutor and have nobody to truly draw coverage on the field.  So rather than confabulating a sleeper, I will point out value when I see it, and will state for the record that this is going to be a huge year for Steven Jackson.  The new OC, Pat Shurmur, comes from Andy Reid’s coaching tree and will be installing a Philadelphia-like West Coast Offense, offering Jackson more than a few pass-catching opportunities.  Back in 2006, Jackson caught ninety balls and rushed 346 times, showing he can handle a full load both rushing and receiving.  Shurmur, who has been working on Jackson’s route-running, is poised to bring Jackson back to that kind of prominence.  Now, according to MyFantasyLeague.com, Jackson has an ADP of 9.25, behind Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chris Johnson.  The only one of those players I am convinced will outperform Jackson is Peterson.  Other than Peterson, the only ones that I can see upstaging Jackson are Fitzgerald and Johnson.  Steven Jackson is going to be this year’s Brian Westbrook, and if he is taken outside the top three, he has been undervalued.  Draft him confidently once AP is off the board. 

San Francisco 49ers – Josh Morgan

There is a lot to love about Josh Morgan this season.  He turned lots of heads in last year’s preseason, but his rookie campaign ended up slain by injuries, robbing him of any chance to truly live up to his potential.  He has kicked off 2010 in similar fashion, but remains healthy.  While there are still plenty of rumbles about Morgan, his ADP remains seriously low.  This isn’t particularly surprising, really, as Morgan remains an untested part of a run-first offense that spent the tenth overall pick on Michael Crabtree, who was not drafted 10th overall to be shuffled around.  The current plans on offense, though, have Morgan and Crabtree playing on opposite ends of the field, with free agent acquisition Brandon Jones working the slot.  Morgan is beyond capable, with both the concentration and physical skills to be a top performer, and will frequently see single coverage with Crabtree drawing the secondary’s attention and Frank Gore constantly threatening to run.  While Morgan has the potential to really shine, he’s still a way away from being any sort of guarantee.  Nevertheless, he has the potential to be a quality number three WR on your fantasy team, and has the raw talent to move even higher.

Seattle Seahawks – Julius Jones

I’m tempted to go with Hasselbeck here, as he is consistently one of my favorite value picks.  But who doesn’t?  And how about TJ Houshmandzadeh?  He has successfully muddled the entire Seahawks receiving situation.  Enter Julius Jones.  Julius is looking at an ADP of 135, according to MyFantasyLeague.com, and that probably has a lot to do with his numbers last season (698 yards rushing, 2 TDs).  But keep in mind, he got a career low in touches, and still outperformed his last year in Dallas.  He also had two 100 yard games in 2008, with a career high 4.4 YPC.  In practice, Jones is raving about how well the new one-cut running scheme suits his skills over Holmgren’s pound-the-rock style.  And while it is still early, Jones is currently running with the first team offense.  The detractors are still there, though…particularly TJ Duckett, who has spent his entire career circling the red zone.  Despite this, I’m projecting over 1,000 yards, and around 5-7 TDs for Jones.  Look at Jones as a lower RB2, or a good RB/WR flex option.  A quality mid-round compliment to an AP or Steven Jackson.

By sleepers, by the way, we’re talking people likely to go, ballpark, twelfth round or later.  Expect me to write-up the AFC East and West and the NFC North and South, with Chris doing the NFC East and West, and the AFC North and South.

You can have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.  You can have Randy Moss or Andre Johnson.  You can have Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.  And that won’t make a difference if you don’t have a decent batch of RBs.  Far and away, the most important position on your team is the running back.  And because of this, your top priority in the first few rounds is to plug up all the RB spots.  And one of your first duties after that is to start drafting depth at the position. 

Why are running backs so important?  Why would you ever draft Larry Johnson, who likes pulling Troy Polamalu’s hair over Peyton Manning, who likes licking the cream out of big black Oreos?  Well, the answer is that top tier RBs are more likely to deliver you a reasonably high number of points on a consistent basis.  “Oh, but Steven, eight of the top ten fantasy scorers in the 2008 fantasy football season were QBs!  Why should we pass up the top scorers in favor of guys who don’t even lick the cream out of big black Oreos?!”  Because you’re a stupid piece of crap, that’s why.  To reference literature from hundreds of years ago, the decay rate of RBs is exponential, while the decay rate of every other position is geometric.  Simple, right?

Since you probably don’t know what that means.  Look at that badass chart up above.  Those are the top fifteen QBs, RBs and WRs in the 2007 season.  The change of color between gray and blue shows the different tiers.  If you’ll notice, there are seven tiers in the quarterback position.  Granted, Tom Brady’s 50 TD season was just leading you on, but since 2004, there has always been a QB sitting well above all his peers (Brady was just the “most-highest” above everyone else).  The difference between each QB tier is relatively small (look at the drop-offs between tiers at each position; 13, 11, 24 and 7 for QB while RB is 44, 24 and 10) and those guys who end up on top are tough to predict. 

While the WR position is somewhat similar to the RB (similar difference in points between the #1 and #15 players, similar tier setup), there are two things that make WRs tough to take in the first round.  Firstly, year-to-year consistency is more elusive at the WR position than anywhere else in fantasy football (at least, in the skill positions).   Of those fifteen top WRs, from 2007 to 2008, Randy Moss dropped to ninth, Reggie Wayne to fourteenth.  Anquan Boldin and Calvin Johnson flew up the charts.  Antonio Bryant came out of nowhere.  Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco, Braylon Edwards, Plaxico Burress, Wes Welker, Tory Holt, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Bobby Engram all fell out of the group. 

Let’s tie together all this “good to crap” stuff.  Using 2007’s Average Draft Positions (on average, where any individual player is taken in the draft), Peyton Manning (ADP of 11) scored 287.1 points on the season.  Matt Hasselbeck (ADP of 69) scored 258.3 points on the season (28.8 points less than Manning).  Ben Roethlisberger (111 in ADP) scored 269.7 on the season (17.4 points fewer than Manning).  Brett Favre (122 ADP) scored 258.5 (28.6 shy).  Let’s stack this up against the season total of the top six RBs, ADP-wise; Ladainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore and Shaun Alexander (213.5 points on the season, even with a year of injuries from Alexander).  RBs taken around Matt Hasselbeck included Julius Jones, Tatum Bell, Brandon Jackson and LaMont Jordan.  The four of them averaged 66.1 points on the season (a difference of 147.3).  RBs taken around Favre and Roethlisberger?  Well, how much of Reuben Droughns, Vernand Morency and Mike Bell have you seen since?  They averaged 33.3 points, by the way.  If that isn’t the statistical proof you needed…well…I don’t know what is. 

Something else to consider is the simple fact that you will see a lot more RBs played weekly.  In a normal ten team league, you will see one QB per team (so, ten total) with at least two RB slots (sometimes you’ll see three RB slots, or two and a flex, meaning you can easily see 25-30 RBs played per week).  Just look above.  Do you want to wait until round ten to fill in that RB position?

The best place to get more info will be my Massive Board and in the Breakdown! section.  We’ll pick out all those valuable RBs and give you a relative draft value for each of them.  But while all that stuff changes year to year…what doesn’t change is the fact that you need good running backs on your team.

Other Random RB Notes:

-          Every year, there will be a handful of RBs considered “elite.”  They are usually the very first players taken off the board.  Consider yourself lucky if you get seeded high enough to take one of them.

-          Almost without fail, there will be at least one rookie RB to run for 1000 yards.  Recent examples include Kevin Jones (2004), Carnell Williams (2005), Joseph Addai (2006) and Marshawn Lynch (2007).  2008 was kind of crazy, with Steve Slaton, Matt Forte and Chris Johnson all reaching this milestone.  Kevin Smith just barely missed the mark (975 yards). 

-          2006 saw the “platoon” become standard.  A “platoon” is where you have one or more RBs receiving a relevant number of carries on the same team.  In these situations, the player with more fantasy value is typically the guy who gets more of the touchdowns (this is not always the case, however).  Elite RBs usually have little to no competition in the backfield.

-          PPR leagues completely shift around the rankings of the position.  It puts a serious premium on players who are parts of West Coast Offenses and players who often get passes dumped to them.

I can’t really tell you how to not make yourself look stupid, outside of recommending you read all our pre-draft stuff.  But don’t be ashamed to have cheat sheets, tier lists and ADP print-outs.

I’m Steve.  He’s Chris.  And ya’ readin’ SC Fantasy Football’s first post.  We’ve got all sortsa good stuff coming your way.  The full newbie guide will be up soon, and you can expect all kinds of good stuff in the future, including Big Boards and in-depth analysis of players.  Feel free to comment and send this stuff to your friends and spread all the fantasy football goodness around.