Donovan McNabb is a Washington Redskin.  Anquan Boldin is a Baltimore Raven.  Santonio Holmes is a New York Jet.  And as per usual, I will sate your craving for fantasy football news by talking about the potential fallout from these deals.

Note: half-way through writing this, I woke up to the news that Brandon Marshall was a Dolphin.  He’ll also be included in this article.

Another note: while I was editing this, Ted Ginn got dealt to the San Francisco 49ers.  He’s a late-round flier again.  I don’t actually feel like writing up a whole thing about him.

Donovan McNabb-

Donovan is in a position to command a relatively solid team, and can put up statistics that reflect this.  While people are dismissing the Redskins offense, you can’t ignore the fact that they have some strong skill players on offense.  I’ll go into that in greater detail in the next section, for now though, let’s focus on McNabb.

The thing about Donovan McNabb, is that we all know he’s capable of being a QB that can sit between Tom Brady and Drew Brees, at least statistically…but he can’t do it on his own.  He always needs somebody else motivating him, whether it’s the GM, by drafting Kevin Kolb, or the coach by benching him for a game.

In all likelihood, he will have that motivation this season, and can put up a season that matches his enthusiasm.  In terms of where to draft Donovan, he fits in right below the top tier QBs (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers).  If McNabb doesn’t immediately begin feuding with the ‘Skins or their fans, the potential for a top-5 year is there for McNabb.

The Rest of the Washington Redskins-

The Redskins presently have a trio of players that have been top-ten at their position.  Those players are Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis.  Portis isn’t looking at a huge statistical boost from McNabb’s presence and he will probably be a good bargain come draft day (a la 2007).  So keep an eye out for him as a great value pick.

Santana Moss is going to be the biggest beneficiary from McNabb.  Moss remains a fast, slippery WR that is at his best when he’s going vertically.  You know, like that DeSean Jackson guy.  He totaled 1167 yards and 9 TDs with McNabb last season.  I could see Santana Moss putting up similar numbers.

Cooley is capable of returning to 2005-2008 form, a stretch where he averaged 786 yards and 5.5 TDs per season.  McNabb hasn’t always been particularly generous to his tight ends (before Brent Celek, the best fantasy season a TE has had under his offense belongs to LJ Smith, to the tune of 611 yards and 5 TDs), so you may want to wait on Cooley during the draft.  He had an injury-plagued season in 2009, so he’s likely to be available at a discount anyway, but unless he demonstrates excellent chemistry with McNabb in the preseason, tailor expectations.

The Philadelphia Eagles Offense-

You know that DeSean Jackson guy?  If you’re in a keeper league and get a good offer, trade him.  Seriously, though, Jackson slides way down the WR rankings.  He was probably going to be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this upcoming season, but he slides back to the WR3 rank.  Draft him alongside guys like Jerricho Cotchery and Devery Henderson.

Brent Celek should stay where he is on your draft board.  It’s a remarkably deep field of TEs in 2010, so don’t draft Celek where he landed last year, as part of that Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark crew.  A 750 yard, 5-8 TD season is very achievable, and probably beatable, stat line for him.

Jason Campbell-

Despite the unanimous dissatisfaction with Jason Campbell…he’s actually a very serviceable QB.  Over the last three seasons, he has always completed over 60% of his passes and has had a 1+ TD:INT ratio.  If he gets traded (especially to Carolina), he could be a strong fantasy backup or half of a QB platoon.

Anquan Boldin-

Personally, I’m one of those guys who buys low on WRs who change teams.  For every New England Patriot Randy Moss, there’s three or four Seattle Seahawk Deion Branches, Seattle Seahawk TJ Houshmandzadehs or former-Seattle Seahawk Darrell Jacksons.   For me, there’s too much risk associated with Boldin, relative to where he is likely to go during drafts.

While Joe Flacco is a solid quarterback, he’s deeply entrenched in a talented (and run-heavy) team with Derrick Mason, Ray Rice and a reemerging Todd Heap.  He probably isn’t going to be in a position to have a 4500 yard, 30 TD season.  Because of that, Boldin probably won’t get a big enough cut of Flacco’s relatively limited production to keep himself as a WR1, or even a WR2.  Because of that, you should lower expectations for Boldin to the mid-WR3 range.

Santonio Holmes-

Santonio Holmes’ trade, as I’m sure you’ve read by now, was largely a message directed at Ben Roethlisberger.  That message is that you can only be a dirty SOB ON the field.  His move to the Jets is relatively big…but it’s being a bit overhyped (as every move by a non-Buffalo New York sports team is).  Keep in mind that Mark Sanchez is easily the worst starting QB not involved in a QB controversy.

Yeah, yeah, I know, he’s still young and he can grow into being a QB that isn’t horrible.  That doesn’t mean it’s not true right now.  He put up a Delhomme-like season in 2009, putting up 2444 yards, 12 TDs and 20 INTs (and 3 FLs) while completing just 53.8% of his passes.

Unless you’re expecting Sanchez to improve in a massive way, you’ve got to wonder how much of a share Holmes can get, especially with Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards all fighting for catches as well.  I don’t see Sanchez improving all that much, and because of that, I’m regarding Holmes as, at best, a Bye Week plug-in.

The Rest of the Steelers Offense-

Roethlisberger, for all his “indiscretions” remains a solid fantasy option (assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a long while, which probably won’t be the case).  While the loss of Santonio Holmes will hurt his production, he’s still worthy of being part of a platoon in 10-team single QB leagues.

The big thing about Holmes being moved is that some other WR is going to have to step up his game in order to replace him.  Roethlisberger is still more than capable of running a pass-happy offense, and it’s something the Steelers can still thrive with.  The 1200 yards receiving that Holmes had in 2009 aren’t going to go away…so who could possibly be the guy to replace him?

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, and we’ll just have to wait and see how the draft and preseason play out.  Though I will say to keep an eye on Mike Wallace.

Brandon Marshall-

My arguments against Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin largely hold up with Brandon Marshall.  Henne has potential, but he didn’t set the NFL ablaze in his first season as a starter (2878 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs).  Granted, Marshall had success with Kyle Orton, who is not on top of many Hall of Fame ballots, but Orton has a level of veteran savvy not found in Henne.  The Dolphins also remain a very run-heavy team with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, which further cuts into Henne’s, and Marshall’s, potential.

That said, Marshall is still a fantasy asset.  Unlike Boldin and Holmes, there really isn’t any competition from that Miami Dolphins receiving corps.  I would cap Henne’s production at around 3200 yards, which is enough to make Marshall useful, assuming he doesn’t end up getting suspended once again.  He’s likely to end up as a strong WR3, though he could clearly beat that out.  However, he’s still likely to be drafted by many as a WR1, and don’t be surprised if he ends up being drafted above guys like Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings.  He’s still valuable, but do not reach for him.

The Broncos Offense

The loss of Brandon Marshall hurts the Broncos (statistically speaking, at least) more than it helps the Dolphins.  The loss of Marshall is something that really impacts the entire Broncos offense.

First and foremost, it drops Kyle Orton’s value.  Orton had his first genuinely good season last year, putting up 3802 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs while starting all 16 games that season, and completing 62.1% of his passes.  Expect a strong dip in his numbers next season, probably to the tune of 3200 yards, 16 TDs, a mark that makes him a serviceable backup or plug-and-play, and nothing more.

The biggest thing, though, is that there is now a sweepstakes for who will become the top wideout in Denver.  There are basically four major candidates to watch out for.

Eddie Royal was one of the biggest surprises in 2008, putting up 980 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season.  Once Cutler got dealt to the Bears and Orton began helming the team, he fell deep down into the Box Scores.  While he failed to gel with Orton last year, his speed and playmaking abilities didn’t disappear.  He can potentially work his way back towards the top of the Broncos receiving corps on a Marshall-less team.

Eight-year veteran Jabar Gaffney set a career high in receiving yards last season, after being reunited with Josh McDaniels in Denver.  Granted, 732 yards and 2 TDs isn’t exactly a jaw-dropping stat line, but he’s not that far off from being fantasy-relevant.  He’s a potential last-round Hail Mary pick, depending on how the preseason plays out, though he could end up being a solid WR3 in deeper leagues.

Journeyman WR Brandon Lloyd is returning to the Broncos after playing just two games in 2009.  Even though he wasn’t stellar in those two games, he was good enough to get the Broncos to re-sign him.  He’s got history with Kyle Orton, and he has intermittently flashed legitimate skills throughout his career.  That said, him putting up anything close to Marshall-like numbers is extraordinarily unlikely…but still possible.

Last but not least is a WR in the draft.  We just have to wait and see what happens with the Broncos on draft day(s), but it’s something to watch for all my hardcore Fantasy Football brothers.

So apparently Brett Favre is re-re-un-retiring and is going to be a Viking this season. What does this mean? Well, get ready to find out in SC Fantasy Football’s first-ever Dissection article, where we pick apart the individual player-by-player fantasy fallout. And what better way to start than here with ESPN’s Golden Boy? So here we go…

QBs Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels – Sage sure must have been pumped up about having a legitimate shot at being a starting QB for a possible Super Bowl contender. And this was supposed to be Tavaris Jackson’s Last Stand. So much for that, huh? While people in deep leagues shouldn’t be rage-dropping Tavaris or Sage quite yet, it’s only a matter of time. They’re worth holding on to for the moment, in case Favre doesn’t pass his physical or gets hurt in the preseason, but if Week 1 comes up and nothing is wrong with Favre, they’re not worth holding on to. There are better real-life backups like Pat White, Andrew Walter and Vince Young who that have higher upside than Rosenfels or Jackson. In standard leagues, though, you can just drop them now and pick up a flier WR or RB like Johnny Knox or Brian Robiskie.

QB Brett Favre – While Brett joining the Vikings isn’t a huge deal, there are some things to consider. Obviously, for me and all my fellows in twenty-team leagues, Favre showing up offers one of those precious few guaranteed starting QBs that doesn’t have his job in danger. In all likelihood, he’s already been taken by now, or will be taken in any deep draft from here on out, though. For standard-sized leagues, his presence is important, but not earthshaking. Favre has more value than a lot of the widely-owned bye- or matchup-play QBs such as Jake Delhomme, Joe Flacco or Jason Campbell. He still falls well outside starter range in ten-team leagues, and this year is particularly deep, with about a dozen QBs with 4000 yard potential. Still, I would lump him together with guys like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Kyle Orton who are taken seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth among QBs.

RB Adrian Peterson – Favre’s joining Minnesota isn’t a huge factor for Peterson. He’s still going to get over 350 touches. Still, I definitely think he’ll lose at least some work with the modestly-improved passing game that Favre brings. Granted, he’s still hyper-talented, and the Minnesota offense is still his to lose. But if you’re one of those guys with the top overall pick, and are turning over the thought of going after Michael Turner or Maurice Jones-Drew, this is something to think about. For me, though, AP is still on top.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe – Shiancoe may actually end up being the biggest beneficiary of Favre’s joining Minnesota. Shiancoe surprised the fantasy football-playing world last season, falling just outside of the top shelf of TEs, with a fifth-place finish behind only Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. It’s no secret that Favre is a fan of his TEs, working Dustin Keller into the Jets’ passing mix in 2008, and making Donald Lee a top-ten fantasy TE in 2007. Shiancoe tied Bernard Berrian as the top scorer through the air, but Berrian’s scoring came from the deep ball, including as a 33-yarder in Week 5, an 86-yarder in Week 6 and a 41-yarder in Week 15. Shiancoe thrived in the short-passing game and red zone, and remains the best target in the Minnesota offense in those situations. At 6-4, 250 pounds, he’s a potential touchdown machine. A season like Dallas Clark’s 2007 campaign (616 yards, 11 TDs) is farfetched, but the potential is there with Favre passing.

WR Bernard Berrian – Let me start by saying Berrian is not that great a WR in PPR leagues. While 964 yards and 7 TDs is a pretty good line, he did it in only 48 receptions, which puts him well below comparable WRs like Hines Ward and Lance Moore. So when I make comparisons to other players in this article, think of it strictly in terms of non-PPR leagues. While Berrian doesn’t benefit from Favre the way Shiancoe does, he gets a modest bump. I can’t see him doing significantly better. 1000 or so yards and 6-8 TDs is likely where he’ll place in 2009. Favre gives him a bit more security than Rosenfels or Jackson at this point, and that’s it. While Favre is probably going to be more willing to throw the deep ball, don’t pick up Berrian over Hines Ward, Antonio Bryant or Santana Moss.

WR Percy Harvin – Percy Harvin also gets a bump from Favre’s presence. Something worth noting is that Favre has produced two fantasy-worthy WRs and a TE several times, be it Donald Driver, Donald Lee and Greg Jennings, or Javon Walker, Bubba Franks and Donald Driver, or Lavernues Coles, Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery. Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe and Percy Harvin could be next. It’s entirely possible that Favre could develop a rapport with Harvin very quickly. Even if he doesn’t, the Vikings are still actively looking for ways to work him into their offense. He had WR3 potential, but he’s become a legitimate potential home run player. His current ADP is around 114. That’s a bargain right now.

Chris got ragged on a little bit for selecting Steven Jackson as a “sleeper”, but he was right in doing so.  So I’m going to take a page from his book.  I’m not going to make up some reason why you should draft Michael Jenkins.  Really, I don’t see the Falcons throwing the ball much more than they did in 2008 and Tony Gonzalez is going to cut into Jenkins’ production, rather than opening up opportunities for him.  I’m not going to make a case for Jerious Norwood.  He isn’t going to get much playing time.  So instead, I’m going to discuss my love of Roddy White. 

A fun fact about me is that I hated Michael Vick before it was cool.  Vick loyalists insisted that he actually wasn’t disgustingly terrible and that he just had horrible WRs and TEs and so forth.  Roddy White single-handedly proved them wrong (and proved me right) by putting up 1202 yards and 6 TDs with “luminaries” like Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington and Chris Redman hurling the rock.  He followed that up with another great season in 2008, totaling 1382 yards and 7 TDs, while also gaining serious rep points among fantasy writers.

White is an all-around WR, with speed, athleticism, big play ability and the hands of a fresh Gummy Bear.  He has good chemistry with Matt Ryan, and will probably benefit from the presence of Tony Gonzalez, especially in the red zone.  He should be tiered together with the likes of Steve Smith, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin and can be confidently drafted as a WR1 on your fantasy team.

Carolina Panthers – Carolina Panthers DEF/ST

The Carolina Panthers went from the middle of the NFL pack to being one of the most fearsome teams in the NFC last year.  The Carolina management determined that the offense was good as-is, signing Jake Delhomme to a puzzlingly long extension, not adding any depth at WR and pushing their lethal duo of halfbacks.  What Carolina didn’t think was good enough, though, was their defense.  While the non-violent resistance of Julius Peppers was the major story of Carolina’s offseason, what wasn’t covered quite as much was Carolina’s scooping up defensive players with its first three picks in the Draft (Everette Brown, DE, at 43rd overall, Sherrod Martin, DB, at 59th and Corvey Irvin, DT, at 93rd), and the eight undrafted free agents brought in to fight for a spot on their defense.  Carolina was 12th best in points allowed last season and has some very exploitable matchups.  The Panthers defense, in all honesty, could end up being a top ten unit.  If you’re like me and you’re not willing to buy high on the Steelers, Titans or Ravens, these guys should be on your list.  When you consider the Packers, Jets, Redskins, Buccaneers and Dolphins are going ahead of them, there’s serious value here.

New Orleans Saints – Lance Moore

In 2006 and 2007, the New Orleans WR situation was best described as Marques Colston playing the role of a lion feasting upon a gazelle while Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and David Patten were the jackals waiting for the leftovers.  While Colston sat out a good part of 2008 with a host of injuries, Lance Moore got his shot at the top of the food chain, and did fairly well, tallying 30 catches, 324 yards and 2 TDs.  Even though Colston came back and promptly reasserted his dominance, Moore picked up the pace in the second half of the season, with 41 catches for 497 yards and 7 TDs from weeks 10-17 (11.5 ppg in standard scoring leagues). 

While Moore is another guy who isn’t really a sleeper, he’s actually a strikingly strong value pick.  Going around pick #87 in fantasy drafts, this mix of Hines Ward and Wes Welker is inexplicably being passed on for question-marks like Santana Moss, Donnie Avery and Jerricho Cotchery in fantasy drafts and is just barely ahead of Ted Ginn, Kevin Walter and Devin Hester.  Moore is honest-to-goodness PPR gold, and is actually a decent WR2 or strong WR3 in such formats.  He’s also an incredible buy-low, sell-high candidate for all you finance majors out there, with a mouth-watering first four weeks that include games against the Lions, Jets and Bills.  Draft him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Earnest Graham

You know what?  Derrick Ward isn’t so good that he’s going to make Earnest Graham obsolete.  Why Ward is going pick #68 on average while Graham is all the way down at #125, I’ll never know.  But here we are.  Earnest Graham averaged 4.3 ypc in 2008 and has hands soft enough to tally up some decent receiving stats.  More importantly than anything else, you’ve got to think about the Tampa Bay offense.  Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese actually tossed 560 passes last year.  Think about that.  They threw the ball more than Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Phil Rivers.  This will not happen again.  Even the biggest fan of Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown will agree. 

So how about I pull out the calculator and come up with some estimates?  The Bucs passed 562 times and ran 451 times in 2007.  Let’s assume the Tampa QBs total 478 pass attempts (the same number of passes thrown by the run-first San Diego offense in 2008), which would add 82 rushing attempts to 2007’s total (that’s 533 rushes), assuming the same number of total offensive snaps.  Warrick Dunn, Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams split 381 total rushing attempts in 2008.  Let’s say there are 463 carries in 2009, split 45:45:10 between Graham, Ward and whoever ends up as the third RB.  That would give Ward 217 carries.  If he continues his career clip (4.1 ypc), that would give him a grand total of 891 yards rushing.  Doing the same with receiving yards for RBs of the swashbuckling variety plays out to the tune of 246 yards receiving.   By my calculations, that would work out to 1137 total yards.  The TD breakdown is, obviously, far more difficult to calculate, but simply consider that TB has had Graham as its primary red zone halfback in the last two years when available. 

Now, this is by no means a seriously reliable tally, and it assumes…well…a whole lot of stuff.  Nonetheless, the potential is there for 1000 total yards and several TDs which is not a bad total for somebody available in the twelfth round.  Consider him a solid matchup/bye week play in 2009, or a decent RB3 in deeper leagues.

While the Broncos were the twelfth best team on the ground last season, they did so with a revolving door of tailbacks.  That revolving door ushered in the likes of Peyton Hillis, Michael Pittman, Tatum Bell, Selvin Young, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain.  Save Torain and Hillis, everyone else is looking elsewhere for work.  Torain is probably going end up on the practice squad, if he stays with the Broncos at all, and even though Hillis was electrifying last season, the utility player looks to get lined up at halfback only on rare occasion, with much of his time spent at fullback, wide receiver or tight end.  While many (including myself) have been gushing over Knowshon Moreno, and projecting him as the top fantasy rookie for 2009, I doubt we’ll see him picking up a huge majority of the Broncos’ carries.  Three veteran RBs were brought in before draft day.  Correll Buckhalter was the first man brought in by Denver, and while he is currently written in as the second RB on the depth chart, the fantasy fallout on his presence ends with who Brian Westbrook’s new handcuff is (it’s LeSean McCoy, by the way).   J.J. Arrington was also added…but he’s since been cut for a bum knee.  The other one was Lamont Jordan, and I see him having serious fantasy relevance this season.  Lamont Jordan is an ideal third down back, in multiple ways.  He has the hands of a WR, best shown off in his seventy-catch 2005 season (and he showed that he still has “it” in 2007).  He also has serious, bowl-you-over power, which was on display last season in New England where he was used to punch the ball through the pile more than a few times.  And in case you hadn’t heard, Josh McDaniels was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator last year, and is high-fiving Lamont out in Denver this year.  With a coach that knows how to use him, expect Jordan to get more than a few carries in 2009, and keep in mind he may become a full-on vulture.

Kansas City Chiefs – Bobby Engram

Here’s a fun fact: Bobby Engram was the #15 fantasy WR in 2007 at thirty-four years old.  Over the last few years, the slippery possession receiver has been the victim of an impressive level of inconsistency at every offensive position in Seattle.  No offense to Seahawks fans, but the change of scenery is going to do wonders for Bobby Engram, who will be sporting an arrowhead on his helmet in 2009.  As we all know, Kansas City has undergone more than a few changes this offseason.  Scott Pioli brought in Matt Cassel, who can be safely written in as the Chiefs’ starting QB for 2009, despite any talk of a competition.  Cassel’s effectiveness in the shotgun (and relative ineffectiveness in other formations) is well-documented and the obvious beneficiaries are Chiefs WRs.  What’s also well-documented is the absolute uselessness of any WRs in Kansas City outside Dwayne Bowe.  Engram is a legit #2 WR for the Chiefs, and is going to be used regularly to try and make up for the distinct lack of Tony Gonzalez this season.  While he has always had a bit of a trouble finding the end zone (he is yet to hit pay dirt more than six times in any given season), Engram is a legitimate top-thirty WR candidate in PPR leagues, a strong later-round pick-up in deeper leagues, and can function as a decent backup in most formats.  Though he could actually work his way into starting lineups if he catches on with Cassel. 

Oakland Raiders – Jamarcus Russel

You know the “Chuck Norris Facts” website?  There should be one of those about how hard Jamarcus Russell throws.   Much like Ted Ginn, Jamarcus Russell is one of those players with so much physical talent, he manages to find his way onto random lists talking about sleeper picks in fantasy football, despite almost no actual regular season performance.  While Jamarcus’ arm strength is what gets the most attention, there’s still a lot to love.  He’s about the same size as Brandon “Football Frankenstein” Jacobs* at 6-6, 260 pounds, and ran a relatively decent 40 (4.83 seconds), both of which make him more than capable of extending a drive with his legs or grinding his way into the end zone.  While this is all well and good, you don’t get points for talent.  You get points for like…passing and stuff.  Well, Russell actually put up respectable numbers in the last three weeks of 2008, getting two passing TDs in each game accompanied by QB ratings of 85.7 (against the Patriots), 128.1 (against the Texans) and 98.9 (against Tampa Bay).  He also has Jeff Garcia breathing down his neck, offering sensual massages and asking him if he wants to see the musical production of Shrek, which can only help motivate him.  And of course, I don’t think any of us are expecting the Raiders defense to be anything more than a vague ideal, as opponents run the ball at will.  Granted, while the poor quality of the defense does not actually make him better, we have seen more than a couple mediocre QBs become fantasy forces because of time spent playing catch-up (2006 Jon Kitna being the best example).  Believe it or not, with a duo of pass-catching RBs, a sure-handed TE and so many WRs that one of them has to be good, Jamarcus Russell is, in many ways, in a position for success.  He’s not somebody that you should confidently draft as the starter for your team, but there is an off chance Russell could wind up a top-ten QB.

*- Nickname shamelessly taken from the many works of Brad Evans.

San Diego Chargers – Darren Sproles

Ladies and gentlemen, I am not a LaDainian Tomlinson advocate.  He has gotten a bum rap, sure, but really, Darren Sproles is the future.  I know it.  You know it.  And Norv Turner knows it.  Regardless of Tomlinson’s health, I simply can’t see him performing at such a high level that a player as electrifying as Darren Sproles would end up completely out of the picture.  That’s not to knock Tomlinson, because he still performed in 2008, but Sproles really is that good.  I think we all saw how he performed in the playoffs last season, so I’ll just throw some other facts at you. 

Sproles averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season.  Tomlinson averaged 3.8.

Despite being generally underused in 2008, Sproles had 29 catches to Tomlinson’s 52.  When you consider that Tomlinson had 292 carries to Sproles’ 61, it suggests that Sproles could be a PPR monster.

The Chargers get all six of their games against divisional rivals in by week twelve.  And if you’re like me and think REALLY far ahead, they play against Cincinnati in week fifteen, which is when my money leagues do their playoffs.  Granted, defenses change every year…but come on.

Indeed, I foresee Sproles making a massive splash in 2009.  Really, Sproles and Tomlinson totaled 2208 yards and 18 TDs in 2008.  Even if they split this, it works out to 1104 yards and 9 TDs.  Not bad for somebody with an ADP around 100.

While Fred Jackson has been Marshawn Lynch’s handcuff/semi-relevant platoon-mate for a couple years now, Dominic Rhodes brings better value and more upside to the table.  Years in the pass-happy Indianapolis offense have made Rhodes a competent pass-blocker and receiving back.  Additionally, unlike Jackson, he has shown flashes of deceptive power in his stout, five-nine frame.  While his value would obviously be at its peak during Marshawn Lynch’s three game suspension (assuming it happens), Rhodes can still remain fantasy-relevant as a goal-line or change-of-pace back when Marshawn takes a few snaps off.  The upside here is not enormous, as it is with the next few guys, but the potential exists.  Take a second look at him in deeper leagues.

Miami Dolphins- Pat White

For the first time in a while, a number of Miami players have fantasy relevance.  Granted, none of them have HUGE fantasy relevance (save Ronnie Brown), but there are a number of ownable players.  Pretty much every Miami receiver is a fantasy sleeper this season.  The hyper-talented Ted Ginn made big strides in 2008, and is entering the magical third season.  Greg Camarillo showed Welker-like potential last season.  Davone Bess had a miniaturized breakout rookie season as a solid slot receiver.  Ernest Wilford is still massive, making him an instant red zone threat.  Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline would not have been drafted by the magically-talented Bill Parcells if they didn’t have NFL-level potential (they’re also both big).  All that said, I already wrote up a big-ass article on Pat White’s historic fantasy potential.  Read it here.

New England Patriots- Laurence Maroney

Ever since Corey Dillon retired, the Patriots’ backfield has been confusing as hell.  In the 2008 season, LaMont Jordan, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis all had brief bursts of fantasy relevance.  Completely absent from this is Laurence Maroney.  The twenty-first overall pick in the 2006 draft has already been labeled a bust by Patriots fans, and a total of sixteen games played in the past two seasons, best remembered for an impressive level of inconsistency, left a bitter taste in the mouth of fantasy players.  To top it all off, a combination of effective play from Sammy Morris (4.6 yards per carry in 2007 and 2008) and Kevin Faulk (6.1 ypc, 58 receptions for 486 yards) and the Patriots’ signing of Fred Taylor have put Maroney out-of-mind with anyone who pays attention to the Pats.  Their loss, though.  Maroney is a rare combination of speed and power.  He ran a 4.48 forty on his Pro Day back in 2006, and back when he was actually playing with Dillon, not a game went by when they didn’t talk about how Dillon worked with him during practice, teaching him his brutal, legendary, tackler-stuffing stiff arm.  Maroney was limited in his brief 2008 season because of a shoulder injury (a broken shoulder, to be precise), which made him unable to show any of the power he had in his first two seasons, like here, where he runs head-first into a pile of Titans for a touchdown, or here, where he embarrasses defenders in the infamous 52-7 win over the Redskins.  Just watching plays like this reminds you that Maroney is talented.  Another thing to consider is that, good as New England’s RBs have been, they’re really freaking old.  Morris is 32, Faulk will be 33 in June, and Fred Taylor will be 34 in time for the postseason.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis, despite his fantasy relevance, is not really electrifying.  While Maroney is probably going to end up somewhere in standard ten team leagues…try and make sure he ends up on your team.

New York Jets- Shonn Greene                            

It’s entirely possible that by the time the season rolls around, this won’t be a sleeper pick.  But I’m still penciling in Marion Barber’s doppelganger here.   Firstly, check this out.  It’s a highlight reel of Shonn Greene barreling over random shmoes in college.  Granted, he is not going to encounter many five-foot-eight strong safeties like he did in college, but the sheer strength is impressive.  New coach Rex Ryan is smitten with Greene’s power, and Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are on the midnight train to the doghouse.  Greene is bigger than Jones and stronger than Washington, and Ryan “loves the way guys bounce off of him” and “has a poster of him taped over his bed.”  Even if Jones and Washington both stick around, the thoughts of Greene getting a huge load of red zone carries won’t leave my head, and a the chances of a two-back system being set up by the new Jets regime boon Greene’s fantasy potential even more.  A season in the same vein of Marion Barber’s 2006 breakout campaign (654 yards, 14 TDs) is possible…though 14 TDs is unlikely.  But Greene will probably end up infuriating many-a-Thomas Jones-owner with his TD-stealing abilities. 

By sleepers, by the way, we’re talking people likely to go, ballpark, twelfth round or later.  Expect me to write-up the AFC East and West and the NFC North and South, with Chris doing the NFC East and West, and the AFC North and South.

What’s this mean for you?  Well, it means that it is kind of stupid to draft a QB in the first round in a regular-scoring league.  However, there are several benefits to such a move.

Something that can make an enormous difference is not being required to spend a roster spot on a backup QB.  If you draft Peyton Manning, that means (at least for the last five years) that you will be playing him every week.  No matter what team he’s up against.  Without fail.  You will not need a backup.  This allows you to free up a roster spot, giving you room for more viable RB options, or the space for another high-upside pick.  This is only an option if you grab one of those top-tier QBs, or if you stumble into an out-of-the-blue high-tier QB (such as 2008 Kurt Warner or 2007 Derek Anderson).  If you grab one of those Drew Brees- or Tom Brady-like QBs, you get a free spot for a potential 2008 Deangelo Williams, 2007 Earnest Graham or 2006 Marion Barber.  This concept slips by many of the self-declared experts, but that freedom really can’t be overstated, even with the drop-off between RBs.  It is an invaluable quality that can’t be found elsewhere.

Personally, the earliest I’ve ever drafted a QB in a semi-standard scoring league was in the sixth round of a ten-teamer.  That was a reach for Jon Kitna in 2007, which didn’t pan out.  Like I said, while I may be there in spirit for the jeering of somebody who takes Peyton Manning, there are benefits.  I’d never do it.  The numbers don’t really back it up.  But it’s not necessarily a horrible decision…I guess.  In 2008, though, I grabbed Warner and, for whatever reason, literally never had a backup save for the week before, and the week of, his bye (being Matt Cassel). 

If you don’t grab one of those high-tier QBs, then you should draft a pair of mid-tier guys.  This is how most fantasy teams conduct themselves, and it usually goes well.  Working matchups is easier at the QB position than anywhere else, and there is usually value at the position throughout the draft.  Something to ponder (and something for me to experiment with) is simply drafting one QB, even if he isn’t elite, and just seeing how it alters my lineup management strategies and determining its viability.  I’ll try it in several leagues and tell you how it works out.

An important footnote for ten-team, two QB leagues is that you shouldn’t go into things planning to grab one of those elite QBs just because there is going to be a shortage.  Your plans should be altered, simply to assure that you get three QBs by draft’s end (each with a different bye week, too!), but you definitely don’t need to scramble to grab Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the first two rounds. 

As per usual, keep an eye out for the tier lists and Mega Boards to come for all your ranking needs.

So here are those assumptions-

1)      Multi-position eligibility (or WR eligibility):

While the ability to play a given player in a number of positions is something very rare in fantasy football, it is not especially outlandish.  The most famous case in recent years is Marques Colston in 2006.  Certain fantasy websites (Yahoo!) made him eligible at both the WR and TE position, because he occasionally spent time against the line during the preseason (or something like that, I’m not really sure).  Colston ended up barely missing the Rookie of the Year award (he lost out to Vince Young) with a 1038 yard, 8 TD breakout season.  He only played 14 games (and only started 12).  In the end, he narrowly edged out Antonio Gates for the top honors at TE. 

Another, less-famous example was Chris Cooley in 2005.  He finished the season with 774 yards and 7 TDs, but he started the season by making occasional appearances as a fullback, getting him RB eligibility in some leagues.  While 774 yards and 7 TDs for a RB is not as impressive as 1038 yards is for a TE, Cooley ended up finding his way into the RB spot in some deeper leagues.  Another case, which nobody really cared about, was Marcus Vick, who was brought in as an undrafted free agent by the Miami Dolphins in 2006, and was made eligible at both QB (where he played in college) and WR (where he played for the Dolphins).  He was on the active roster only twice that season, and nobody really noticed, even when he was there.

For Pat to meet my expectations (potentially), he would need to be eligible at the WR position.  If he ends up only receiving eligibility at QB, then you can just stop reading this.  But right now, logic suggests he will be eligible for both.

2)      Chad Pennington Gets Injured and/or Loses the Starting Job and/or the Dolphins Regularly Use White at QB

I’m a fan of Chad Pennington.  I liked him as a Jet and I loved him as a Dolphin.  But a sidelined Chad Pennington is not a particularly outlandish concept.  There are a lot of things that can put him on his ass (and his ass on the bench) for a length of time.

Jets fans best remember Pennington landing armpit-first into the turf, tearing his rotator cuff.  Then doing it again.  Dash in some ankle sprains and rib cracks and you have a guy who can be safely labeled as an “injury-prone”.  Nobody wants Pennington to get injured (except assholes), but it can happen to any of us…and we all know that Chad’s more than capable of missing some games.  An injured Pennington puts a big hole at QB…one that Pat White could fill (no homo).

If the Dolphins get off to an 0-7-0 start, quickly sealing away any postseason chances early, Pennington could ride the pine just to give their younger QBs some playing time, opening the door for White.  Pennington is going to be 33 in June.  When he was first signed by the ‘Phins, everyone thought of him as a patch that would last, at best, a few seasons.  As spectacular as he was last season (3600 yards, 19 TDs, 97.4 QB Rating), a repeat is unlikely.  And a repeat in 2010?  Well, that’s getting close to impossible.  Parcells and Sparano know that Chad’s days are numbered, and as important as he was to Miami’s epic 2008 season, Parcells isn’t known for sentimentality.  If he has the opportunity to get Henne or White some playing time, he’ll do it.

As outlandish as it sounds, there is plenty of speculation that we will see a lot more of the wildcat from the Miami offense this season.  And, according some people, a WHOLE lot more.  Personally, I don’t buy into all that, but hey, Pat White opens up the passing game in a way Ronnie Brown couldn’t.  If they do something crazy like run the wildcat 20% of the time…White remains relevant.

3)      Get to the Point Already!

The bottom line with Pat White is that this is a guy that could end up playing at QB in real football, while playing WR in fantasy.  Let’s throw out some hypothetical stat lines.  Let’s say that ol’ Pat starts the season out as a WR and gets behind center in the wildcat, and becomes a full time starter at QB half-way through the season.  A semi-realistic stat line for such a situation would be something like…

1400 yards passing

6 passing TDs

5 INTs

300 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

1 FL

That would total 147 fantasy points, and would slip him in as the #15 WR in 2008 in standard-scoring leagues.  Not all that impressive, right?  But if he takes over at QB for eight weeks and puts up something like…

1100 yards passing

5 passing TDs

5 INTs

250 yards rushing

2 rushing TDs

…that would yield 96 fantasy points in 8 weeks, or 12 points per game.  12 points per game, by the way, is #6 among WRs in 2008.

But still, #6 among WRs over an eight game stretch isn’t close to being one of the best fantasy players ever now is it?  So how can he come close to the hype I’ve been giving him?  Let’s say, hypothetically, Chad Pennington gets put onto the injured reserves before the season even starts, or very early in the season.  In a situation like this, with an inexperienced Chad Henne as Pennington’s on-paper backup, White could become the starting QB in Miami…and a starting WR in fantasy.  Let’s look at a couple recent examples of young, scramble-capable QBs in their first seasons as starters…2006 Vince Young and 2008 Tyler Thigpen.  Vince Young’s stat line looked like this:

2199 yards passing

12 passing TDs

13 INTs                                                                        

553 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

In the end, he totaled 213 fantasy points.  Tyler Thigpen’s 2008 season looked like this:

2608 yards passing

18 passing TDs

12 INTs

386 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

Thigpen finished with 217 fantasy points.  Just for fun, let’s look at Michael Vick, circa 2005:

2412 yards passing

15 passing TDs

13 INTs

610 yards rushing

6 rushing TDs

231 points by season’s end. 

So 213 points for 2006 Young, 217 for 2008 Thigpen and 231 for 2005 Vick.  Keep in mind, these are not jaw-dropping stat lines for a QB.  In ten years, you’re not going to look at your son and say “want to see a real quarterback?  Go look up Michael Vick in 2005”?  Obviously not.  But the gap between WRs and QBs, point-wise, makes it so that if you plug those three guys into the 2008 WR rankings, the three of them end up ranking at #1, #2, and #4.  Larry Fitzgerald splits the group up at #3 with 215 points.  Fitzgerald’s stat line, by the way, was 1434 yards and 12 TDs. 

So what if Pat White puts up a decent stat line for a QB?  Let’s say…

3000 yards passing

20 passing TDs

14 INTs

500 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

The 100 yards receiving is just because he’s going to be in the wildcat…so it’s possible he’ll end up catching a handful of passes.  Anyway, that stat line would add up to 276 fantasy points.  Point-wise, it would beat out any WR since 2000, save 2007 Randy Moss which, as we all remember, is one for the ages.  He comes short by just 11 points.  But even if Pat white puts up a relatively forgettable stat line like…

2500 yards passing

13 passing TDs

13 INTs

400 yards rushing

4 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

he still puts up 201 fantasy points on the season, putting him right behind Calvin Johnson (#3 WR) in the 2008 rankings.  The average score of the #10 WR since 2000 is 168.4.  QBs hovering around that mark are 2008 Trent Edwards and Jeff Garcia (#22 and 23 overall QBs, respectively, in 2008), 2007 Vince Young (#17 QB in 2007) and 2006 Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck (#20 and 21, respectively). 

If Pat White ends up playing any considerable amount of time at QB, he instantly becomes a must-start WR.  Every week.  If he isn’t horrible, he will be a top 20 WR.  Almost guaranteed.  If you’re in anything RESEMBLING a deep league, do NOT let Pat White go undrafted.  Standard ten team, three WR leagues should consider him a late-round upside pick.  There is just too much potential here to let him stay on waivers. 

But once again, if he ends up not being WR-eligible, then I just wrote up four pages for nothing.

Not to hate on Sanchez, but there has not been a particularly huge rookie QB in fantasy football since…uhhh…I can’t remember. Really, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were praised up and down (deservedly so) and after starting all sixteen games, the two of them still ended the season as the number 19 and 16 QBs, respectively.  Really, Joe Flacco’s 2008 stat line (2900 yards, 14 TDs) is about where I would predict Sanchez to end up if he plays all sixteen games (which he probably won’t), which is generally unimpressive by fantasy standards.  Yeah, the Jets picking up a franchise QB was probably the biggest move of the draft, but not close to the biggest fantasy move, by far. 

On the other hand, we see rookie RBs succeed each year, which is why I put Knowshon Moreno at the top of my draft notes.  Even if he isn’t elite, if he gets half of Denver’s carries, he’ll be a beyond-serviceable fantasy back and, using Chris’ own words to back me up, he could be a PPR wonder if he actually is anything like Kevin Faulk. 

As for Michael Crabtree, my lumping him in with all those other rookie WRs is not an indictment by any means.  Crabtree could be all sorts of great.  But there’s always plenty to worry about when it comes to rookie WRs.  In fact, the best rookie WRs in recent years are the guys who end up going undrafted in fantasy (like Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston, while Calvin Johnson and Santonio Holmes get taken in the mid, sometimes early rounds).  So while Crabtree will go in round seven of your fantasy drafts, one of those other six receivers taken in the first round will probably be the rookie WR of the year. 

Something we can all agree on, though, is that Al Davis is a crazy SOB.  What a jackass.