Chris got ragged on a little bit for selecting Steven Jackson as a “sleeper”, but he was right in doing so.  So I’m going to take a page from his book.  I’m not going to make up some reason why you should draft Michael Jenkins.  Really, I don’t see the Falcons throwing the ball much more than they did in 2008 and Tony Gonzalez is going to cut into Jenkins’ production, rather than opening up opportunities for him.  I’m not going to make a case for Jerious Norwood.  He isn’t going to get much playing time.  So instead, I’m going to discuss my love of Roddy White. 

A fun fact about me is that I hated Michael Vick before it was cool.  Vick loyalists insisted that he actually wasn’t disgustingly terrible and that he just had horrible WRs and TEs and so forth.  Roddy White single-handedly proved them wrong (and proved me right) by putting up 1202 yards and 6 TDs with “luminaries” like Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington and Chris Redman hurling the rock.  He followed that up with another great season in 2008, totaling 1382 yards and 7 TDs, while also gaining serious rep points among fantasy writers.

White is an all-around WR, with speed, athleticism, big play ability and the hands of a fresh Gummy Bear.  He has good chemistry with Matt Ryan, and will probably benefit from the presence of Tony Gonzalez, especially in the red zone.  He should be tiered together with the likes of Steve Smith, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin and can be confidently drafted as a WR1 on your fantasy team.

Carolina Panthers – Carolina Panthers DEF/ST

The Carolina Panthers went from the middle of the NFL pack to being one of the most fearsome teams in the NFC last year.  The Carolina management determined that the offense was good as-is, signing Jake Delhomme to a puzzlingly long extension, not adding any depth at WR and pushing their lethal duo of halfbacks.  What Carolina didn’t think was good enough, though, was their defense.  While the non-violent resistance of Julius Peppers was the major story of Carolina’s offseason, what wasn’t covered quite as much was Carolina’s scooping up defensive players with its first three picks in the Draft (Everette Brown, DE, at 43rd overall, Sherrod Martin, DB, at 59th and Corvey Irvin, DT, at 93rd), and the eight undrafted free agents brought in to fight for a spot on their defense.  Carolina was 12th best in points allowed last season and has some very exploitable matchups.  The Panthers defense, in all honesty, could end up being a top ten unit.  If you’re like me and you’re not willing to buy high on the Steelers, Titans or Ravens, these guys should be on your list.  When you consider the Packers, Jets, Redskins, Buccaneers and Dolphins are going ahead of them, there’s serious value here.

New Orleans Saints – Lance Moore

In 2006 and 2007, the New Orleans WR situation was best described as Marques Colston playing the role of a lion feasting upon a gazelle while Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and David Patten were the jackals waiting for the leftovers.  While Colston sat out a good part of 2008 with a host of injuries, Lance Moore got his shot at the top of the food chain, and did fairly well, tallying 30 catches, 324 yards and 2 TDs.  Even though Colston came back and promptly reasserted his dominance, Moore picked up the pace in the second half of the season, with 41 catches for 497 yards and 7 TDs from weeks 10-17 (11.5 ppg in standard scoring leagues). 

While Moore is another guy who isn’t really a sleeper, he’s actually a strikingly strong value pick.  Going around pick #87 in fantasy drafts, this mix of Hines Ward and Wes Welker is inexplicably being passed on for question-marks like Santana Moss, Donnie Avery and Jerricho Cotchery in fantasy drafts and is just barely ahead of Ted Ginn, Kevin Walter and Devin Hester.  Moore is honest-to-goodness PPR gold, and is actually a decent WR2 or strong WR3 in such formats.  He’s also an incredible buy-low, sell-high candidate for all you finance majors out there, with a mouth-watering first four weeks that include games against the Lions, Jets and Bills.  Draft him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Earnest Graham

You know what?  Derrick Ward isn’t so good that he’s going to make Earnest Graham obsolete.  Why Ward is going pick #68 on average while Graham is all the way down at #125, I’ll never know.  But here we are.  Earnest Graham averaged 4.3 ypc in 2008 and has hands soft enough to tally up some decent receiving stats.  More importantly than anything else, you’ve got to think about the Tampa Bay offense.  Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese actually tossed 560 passes last year.  Think about that.  They threw the ball more than Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Phil Rivers.  This will not happen again.  Even the biggest fan of Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown will agree. 

So how about I pull out the calculator and come up with some estimates?  The Bucs passed 562 times and ran 451 times in 2007.  Let’s assume the Tampa QBs total 478 pass attempts (the same number of passes thrown by the run-first San Diego offense in 2008), which would add 82 rushing attempts to 2007’s total (that’s 533 rushes), assuming the same number of total offensive snaps.  Warrick Dunn, Earnest Graham and Carnell Williams split 381 total rushing attempts in 2008.  Let’s say there are 463 carries in 2009, split 45:45:10 between Graham, Ward and whoever ends up as the third RB.  That would give Ward 217 carries.  If he continues his career clip (4.1 ypc), that would give him a grand total of 891 yards rushing.  Doing the same with receiving yards for RBs of the swashbuckling variety plays out to the tune of 246 yards receiving.   By my calculations, that would work out to 1137 total yards.  The TD breakdown is, obviously, far more difficult to calculate, but simply consider that TB has had Graham as its primary red zone halfback in the last two years when available. 

Now, this is by no means a seriously reliable tally, and it assumes…well…a whole lot of stuff.  Nonetheless, the potential is there for 1000 total yards and several TDs which is not a bad total for somebody available in the twelfth round.  Consider him a solid matchup/bye week play in 2009, or a decent RB3 in deeper leagues.

While Fred Jackson has been Marshawn Lynch’s handcuff/semi-relevant platoon-mate for a couple years now, Dominic Rhodes brings better value and more upside to the table.  Years in the pass-happy Indianapolis offense have made Rhodes a competent pass-blocker and receiving back.  Additionally, unlike Jackson, he has shown flashes of deceptive power in his stout, five-nine frame.  While his value would obviously be at its peak during Marshawn Lynch’s three game suspension (assuming it happens), Rhodes can still remain fantasy-relevant as a goal-line or change-of-pace back when Marshawn takes a few snaps off.  The upside here is not enormous, as it is with the next few guys, but the potential exists.  Take a second look at him in deeper leagues.

Miami Dolphins- Pat White

For the first time in a while, a number of Miami players have fantasy relevance.  Granted, none of them have HUGE fantasy relevance (save Ronnie Brown), but there are a number of ownable players.  Pretty much every Miami receiver is a fantasy sleeper this season.  The hyper-talented Ted Ginn made big strides in 2008, and is entering the magical third season.  Greg Camarillo showed Welker-like potential last season.  Davone Bess had a miniaturized breakout rookie season as a solid slot receiver.  Ernest Wilford is still massive, making him an instant red zone threat.  Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline would not have been drafted by the magically-talented Bill Parcells if they didn’t have NFL-level potential (they’re also both big).  All that said, I already wrote up a big-ass article on Pat White’s historic fantasy potential.  Read it here.

New England Patriots- Laurence Maroney

Ever since Corey Dillon retired, the Patriots’ backfield has been confusing as hell.  In the 2008 season, LaMont Jordan, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis all had brief bursts of fantasy relevance.  Completely absent from this is Laurence Maroney.  The twenty-first overall pick in the 2006 draft has already been labeled a bust by Patriots fans, and a total of sixteen games played in the past two seasons, best remembered for an impressive level of inconsistency, left a bitter taste in the mouth of fantasy players.  To top it all off, a combination of effective play from Sammy Morris (4.6 yards per carry in 2007 and 2008) and Kevin Faulk (6.1 ypc, 58 receptions for 486 yards) and the Patriots’ signing of Fred Taylor have put Maroney out-of-mind with anyone who pays attention to the Pats.  Their loss, though.  Maroney is a rare combination of speed and power.  He ran a 4.48 forty on his Pro Day back in 2006, and back when he was actually playing with Dillon, not a game went by when they didn’t talk about how Dillon worked with him during practice, teaching him his brutal, legendary, tackler-stuffing stiff arm.  Maroney was limited in his brief 2008 season because of a shoulder injury (a broken shoulder, to be precise), which made him unable to show any of the power he had in his first two seasons, like here, where he runs head-first into a pile of Titans for a touchdown, or here, where he embarrasses defenders in the infamous 52-7 win over the Redskins.  Just watching plays like this reminds you that Maroney is talented.  Another thing to consider is that, good as New England’s RBs have been, they’re really freaking old.  Morris is 32, Faulk will be 33 in June, and Fred Taylor will be 34 in time for the postseason.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis, despite his fantasy relevance, is not really electrifying.  While Maroney is probably going to end up somewhere in standard ten team leagues…try and make sure he ends up on your team.

New York Jets- Shonn Greene                            

It’s entirely possible that by the time the season rolls around, this won’t be a sleeper pick.  But I’m still penciling in Marion Barber’s doppelganger here.   Firstly, check this out.  It’s a highlight reel of Shonn Greene barreling over random shmoes in college.  Granted, he is not going to encounter many five-foot-eight strong safeties like he did in college, but the sheer strength is impressive.  New coach Rex Ryan is smitten with Greene’s power, and Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are on the midnight train to the doghouse.  Greene is bigger than Jones and stronger than Washington, and Ryan “loves the way guys bounce off of him” and “has a poster of him taped over his bed.”  Even if Jones and Washington both stick around, the thoughts of Greene getting a huge load of red zone carries won’t leave my head, and a the chances of a two-back system being set up by the new Jets regime boon Greene’s fantasy potential even more.  A season in the same vein of Marion Barber’s 2006 breakout campaign (654 yards, 14 TDs) is possible…though 14 TDs is unlikely.  But Greene will probably end up infuriating many-a-Thomas Jones-owner with his TD-stealing abilities. 

Jump ahead a couple picks and we get to the Oakland Raiders. Darrius Heyward-Bey. Yet another example of the effects of Alzheimer’s. This is a serious, serious illness, and we need to do more about it. If Terrell Owens was on the Raiders, he’d be able to diagnosis Al Davis. No knock on Owens there, Owens has a long history of raising money and donating funds to Alzheimer’s. And as a result, Michael Crabtree fell to the 49ers. Have to say, a fantastic spot for him to land, there were concerns about his attitude and now he is going to play under Mike Singletary, who may drop his pants and hump Crabtree into submission should insubordination occur. It’s a shame the 49ers are a run-first team now, because Crabtree could have had some great success.

Fantasy Outlook:

Sanchez will take over for NYJ at some point, likely early on, this season. When he does come in, he’ll be raw, and he’ll have to play a lot of difficult defenses thanks to the division the Jets are in. Jets receivers take a hit, and with the addition of Shonn Greene, Thomas Jones will lose carries and thus value. I would steer clear of Jets players this season, but Greene and Sanchez are good targets for Dynasty and Keeper leagues.

Heyward-Bey is not going to pan out. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see it happening. There isn’t a whole lot of talent down there, they don’t have a top end QB, their line is average, and the list goes on. The only thing the Raiders have going is the strength of the running back position. I wouldn’t even want to classify Heyward-Bey as a marginal WR3, more of a WR4, but I’ll go with the former. I’m assuming his ceiling is Devin Hester’s numbers from last year, but likely will only match Bethel Johnson’s career year in NE. I do feel it is necessary to note that the second round pick of the Raiders, Michael Mitchell, seems to have generated a bit more support despite being a three round reach.

Crabtree steps in as the 49ers top receiver. Of course, he is also a well rounded player, tall, can catch the ball, runs goods routes, and shows strong burst. What he lacks in straight-line speed, he makes up for in the ability to make plays. As for his value, he is on a run first team that is shaky at quarterback, (despite the 49ers continued success using Shaun Hill versus any of the other quarterbacks on their roster). Crabtree as of now is a mid to upper WR3, with potential to reach mid to higher end WR2. It will depend on how the season plays out, if the 49ers fall behind often, etc. Crabtree will have Isaac Bruce on the field with him showing him the ropes, and there has been word that Jerry Rice will be around to help mentor the young receiver. He is a good target in round 7 or so in redraft leagues, and much earlier in Dynasty leagues. Frank Gore also gets a small boost because the presence of Crabtree will help prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box, and can also help out in blocking downfield.

The three teams I went with in this post I picked for a reason. Jets are my favorite movers in this draft, Raiders get the worst grade, and 49ers get the best grade.