So apparently Brett Favre is re-re-un-retiring and is going to be a Viking this season. What does this mean? Well, get ready to find out in SC Fantasy Football’s first-ever Dissection article, where we pick apart the individual player-by-player fantasy fallout. And what better way to start than here with ESPN’s Golden Boy? So here we go…

QBs Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels – Sage sure must have been pumped up about having a legitimate shot at being a starting QB for a possible Super Bowl contender. And this was supposed to be Tavaris Jackson’s Last Stand. So much for that, huh? While people in deep leagues shouldn’t be rage-dropping Tavaris or Sage quite yet, it’s only a matter of time. They’re worth holding on to for the moment, in case Favre doesn’t pass his physical or gets hurt in the preseason, but if Week 1 comes up and nothing is wrong with Favre, they’re not worth holding on to. There are better real-life backups like Pat White, Andrew Walter and Vince Young who that have higher upside than Rosenfels or Jackson. In standard leagues, though, you can just drop them now and pick up a flier WR or RB like Johnny Knox or Brian Robiskie.

QB Brett Favre – While Brett joining the Vikings isn’t a huge deal, there are some things to consider. Obviously, for me and all my fellows in twenty-team leagues, Favre showing up offers one of those precious few guaranteed starting QBs that doesn’t have his job in danger. In all likelihood, he’s already been taken by now, or will be taken in any deep draft from here on out, though. For standard-sized leagues, his presence is important, but not earthshaking. Favre has more value than a lot of the widely-owned bye- or matchup-play QBs such as Jake Delhomme, Joe Flacco or Jason Campbell. He still falls well outside starter range in ten-team leagues, and this year is particularly deep, with about a dozen QBs with 4000 yard potential. Still, I would lump him together with guys like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Kyle Orton who are taken seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth among QBs.

RB Adrian Peterson – Favre’s joining Minnesota isn’t a huge factor for Peterson. He’s still going to get over 350 touches. Still, I definitely think he’ll lose at least some work with the modestly-improved passing game that Favre brings. Granted, he’s still hyper-talented, and the Minnesota offense is still his to lose. But if you’re one of those guys with the top overall pick, and are turning over the thought of going after Michael Turner or Maurice Jones-Drew, this is something to think about. For me, though, AP is still on top.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe – Shiancoe may actually end up being the biggest beneficiary of Favre’s joining Minnesota. Shiancoe surprised the fantasy football-playing world last season, falling just outside of the top shelf of TEs, with a fifth-place finish behind only Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. It’s no secret that Favre is a fan of his TEs, working Dustin Keller into the Jets’ passing mix in 2008, and making Donald Lee a top-ten fantasy TE in 2007. Shiancoe tied Bernard Berrian as the top scorer through the air, but Berrian’s scoring came from the deep ball, including as a 33-yarder in Week 5, an 86-yarder in Week 6 and a 41-yarder in Week 15. Shiancoe thrived in the short-passing game and red zone, and remains the best target in the Minnesota offense in those situations. At 6-4, 250 pounds, he’s a potential touchdown machine. A season like Dallas Clark’s 2007 campaign (616 yards, 11 TDs) is farfetched, but the potential is there with Favre passing.

WR Bernard Berrian – Let me start by saying Berrian is not that great a WR in PPR leagues. While 964 yards and 7 TDs is a pretty good line, he did it in only 48 receptions, which puts him well below comparable WRs like Hines Ward and Lance Moore. So when I make comparisons to other players in this article, think of it strictly in terms of non-PPR leagues. While Berrian doesn’t benefit from Favre the way Shiancoe does, he gets a modest bump. I can’t see him doing significantly better. 1000 or so yards and 6-8 TDs is likely where he’ll place in 2009. Favre gives him a bit more security than Rosenfels or Jackson at this point, and that’s it. While Favre is probably going to be more willing to throw the deep ball, don’t pick up Berrian over Hines Ward, Antonio Bryant or Santana Moss.

WR Percy Harvin – Percy Harvin also gets a bump from Favre’s presence. Something worth noting is that Favre has produced two fantasy-worthy WRs and a TE several times, be it Donald Driver, Donald Lee and Greg Jennings, or Javon Walker, Bubba Franks and Donald Driver, or Lavernues Coles, Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery. Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe and Percy Harvin could be next. It’s entirely possible that Favre could develop a rapport with Harvin very quickly. Even if he doesn’t, the Vikings are still actively looking for ways to work him into their offense. He had WR3 potential, but he’s become a legitimate potential home run player. His current ADP is around 114. That’s a bargain right now.

So here are those assumptions-

1)      Multi-position eligibility (or WR eligibility):

While the ability to play a given player in a number of positions is something very rare in fantasy football, it is not especially outlandish.  The most famous case in recent years is Marques Colston in 2006.  Certain fantasy websites (Yahoo!) made him eligible at both the WR and TE position, because he occasionally spent time against the line during the preseason (or something like that, I’m not really sure).  Colston ended up barely missing the Rookie of the Year award (he lost out to Vince Young) with a 1038 yard, 8 TD breakout season.  He only played 14 games (and only started 12).  In the end, he narrowly edged out Antonio Gates for the top honors at TE. 

Another, less-famous example was Chris Cooley in 2005.  He finished the season with 774 yards and 7 TDs, but he started the season by making occasional appearances as a fullback, getting him RB eligibility in some leagues.  While 774 yards and 7 TDs for a RB is not as impressive as 1038 yards is for a TE, Cooley ended up finding his way into the RB spot in some deeper leagues.  Another case, which nobody really cared about, was Marcus Vick, who was brought in as an undrafted free agent by the Miami Dolphins in 2006, and was made eligible at both QB (where he played in college) and WR (where he played for the Dolphins).  He was on the active roster only twice that season, and nobody really noticed, even when he was there.

For Pat to meet my expectations (potentially), he would need to be eligible at the WR position.  If he ends up only receiving eligibility at QB, then you can just stop reading this.  But right now, logic suggests he will be eligible for both.

2)      Chad Pennington Gets Injured and/or Loses the Starting Job and/or the Dolphins Regularly Use White at QB

I’m a fan of Chad Pennington.  I liked him as a Jet and I loved him as a Dolphin.  But a sidelined Chad Pennington is not a particularly outlandish concept.  There are a lot of things that can put him on his ass (and his ass on the bench) for a length of time.

Jets fans best remember Pennington landing armpit-first into the turf, tearing his rotator cuff.  Then doing it again.  Dash in some ankle sprains and rib cracks and you have a guy who can be safely labeled as an “injury-prone”.  Nobody wants Pennington to get injured (except assholes), but it can happen to any of us…and we all know that Chad’s more than capable of missing some games.  An injured Pennington puts a big hole at QB…one that Pat White could fill (no homo).

If the Dolphins get off to an 0-7-0 start, quickly sealing away any postseason chances early, Pennington could ride the pine just to give their younger QBs some playing time, opening the door for White.  Pennington is going to be 33 in June.  When he was first signed by the ‘Phins, everyone thought of him as a patch that would last, at best, a few seasons.  As spectacular as he was last season (3600 yards, 19 TDs, 97.4 QB Rating), a repeat is unlikely.  And a repeat in 2010?  Well, that’s getting close to impossible.  Parcells and Sparano know that Chad’s days are numbered, and as important as he was to Miami’s epic 2008 season, Parcells isn’t known for sentimentality.  If he has the opportunity to get Henne or White some playing time, he’ll do it.

As outlandish as it sounds, there is plenty of speculation that we will see a lot more of the wildcat from the Miami offense this season.  And, according some people, a WHOLE lot more.  Personally, I don’t buy into all that, but hey, Pat White opens up the passing game in a way Ronnie Brown couldn’t.  If they do something crazy like run the wildcat 20% of the time…White remains relevant.

3)      Get to the Point Already!

The bottom line with Pat White is that this is a guy that could end up playing at QB in real football, while playing WR in fantasy.  Let’s throw out some hypothetical stat lines.  Let’s say that ol’ Pat starts the season out as a WR and gets behind center in the wildcat, and becomes a full time starter at QB half-way through the season.  A semi-realistic stat line for such a situation would be something like…

1400 yards passing

6 passing TDs

5 INTs

300 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

1 FL

That would total 147 fantasy points, and would slip him in as the #15 WR in 2008 in standard-scoring leagues.  Not all that impressive, right?  But if he takes over at QB for eight weeks and puts up something like…

1100 yards passing

5 passing TDs

5 INTs

250 yards rushing

2 rushing TDs

…that would yield 96 fantasy points in 8 weeks, or 12 points per game.  12 points per game, by the way, is #6 among WRs in 2008.

But still, #6 among WRs over an eight game stretch isn’t close to being one of the best fantasy players ever now is it?  So how can he come close to the hype I’ve been giving him?  Let’s say, hypothetically, Chad Pennington gets put onto the injured reserves before the season even starts, or very early in the season.  In a situation like this, with an inexperienced Chad Henne as Pennington’s on-paper backup, White could become the starting QB in Miami…and a starting WR in fantasy.  Let’s look at a couple recent examples of young, scramble-capable QBs in their first seasons as starters…2006 Vince Young and 2008 Tyler Thigpen.  Vince Young’s stat line looked like this:

2199 yards passing

12 passing TDs

13 INTs                                                                        

553 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

In the end, he totaled 213 fantasy points.  Tyler Thigpen’s 2008 season looked like this:

2608 yards passing

18 passing TDs

12 INTs

386 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

Thigpen finished with 217 fantasy points.  Just for fun, let’s look at Michael Vick, circa 2005:

2412 yards passing

15 passing TDs

13 INTs

610 yards rushing

6 rushing TDs

231 points by season’s end. 

So 213 points for 2006 Young, 217 for 2008 Thigpen and 231 for 2005 Vick.  Keep in mind, these are not jaw-dropping stat lines for a QB.  In ten years, you’re not going to look at your son and say “want to see a real quarterback?  Go look up Michael Vick in 2005”?  Obviously not.  But the gap between WRs and QBs, point-wise, makes it so that if you plug those three guys into the 2008 WR rankings, the three of them end up ranking at #1, #2, and #4.  Larry Fitzgerald splits the group up at #3 with 215 points.  Fitzgerald’s stat line, by the way, was 1434 yards and 12 TDs. 

So what if Pat White puts up a decent stat line for a QB?  Let’s say…

3000 yards passing

20 passing TDs

14 INTs

500 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

The 100 yards receiving is just because he’s going to be in the wildcat…so it’s possible he’ll end up catching a handful of passes.  Anyway, that stat line would add up to 276 fantasy points.  Point-wise, it would beat out any WR since 2000, save 2007 Randy Moss which, as we all remember, is one for the ages.  He comes short by just 11 points.  But even if Pat white puts up a relatively forgettable stat line like…

2500 yards passing

13 passing TDs

13 INTs

400 yards rushing

4 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

he still puts up 201 fantasy points on the season, putting him right behind Calvin Johnson (#3 WR) in the 2008 rankings.  The average score of the #10 WR since 2000 is 168.4.  QBs hovering around that mark are 2008 Trent Edwards and Jeff Garcia (#22 and 23 overall QBs, respectively, in 2008), 2007 Vince Young (#17 QB in 2007) and 2006 Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck (#20 and 21, respectively). 

If Pat White ends up playing any considerable amount of time at QB, he instantly becomes a must-start WR.  Every week.  If he isn’t horrible, he will be a top 20 WR.  Almost guaranteed.  If you’re in anything RESEMBLING a deep league, do NOT let Pat White go undrafted.  Standard ten team, three WR leagues should consider him a late-round upside pick.  There is just too much potential here to let him stay on waivers. 

But once again, if he ends up not being WR-eligible, then I just wrote up four pages for nothing.