Remember when Jay Cutler was traded last year and everyone said it was, perhaps, the biggest trade in NFL history? Trades of any true consequence are fairly rare in the NFL, especially when compared to the NHL and MLB. This offseason, though, we’ve seen several big-name players get swapped for draft picks.
Donovan McNabb is a Washington Redskin. Anquan Boldin is a Baltimore Raven. Santonio Holmes is a New York Jet. And as per usual, I will sate your craving for fantasy football news by talking about the potential fallout from these deals.
Note: half-way through writing this, I woke up to the news that Brandon Marshall was a Dolphin. He’ll also be included in this article.
Another note: while I was editing this, Ted Ginn got dealt to the San Francisco 49ers. He’s a late-round flier again. I don’t actually feel like writing up a whole thing about him.
Donovan McNabb-
Donovan is in a position to command a relatively solid team, and can put up statistics that reflect this. While people are dismissing the Redskins offense, you can’t ignore the fact that they have some strong skill players on offense. I’ll go into that in greater detail in the next section, for now though, let’s focus on McNabb.
The thing about Donovan McNabb, is that we all know he’s capable of being a QB that can sit between Tom Brady and Drew Brees, at least statistically…but he can’t do it on his own. He always needs somebody else motivating him, whether it’s the GM, by drafting Kevin Kolb, or the coach by benching him for a game.
In all likelihood, he will have that motivation this season, and can put up a season that matches his enthusiasm. In terms of where to draft Donovan, he fits in right below the top tier QBs (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers). If McNabb doesn’t immediately begin feuding with the ‘Skins or their fans, the potential for a top-5 year is there for McNabb.
The Rest of the Washington Redskins-
The Redskins presently have a trio of players that have been top-ten at their position. Those players are Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis. Portis isn’t looking at a huge statistical boost from McNabb’s presence and he will probably be a good bargain come draft day (a la 2007). So keep an eye out for him as a great value pick.
Santana Moss is going to be the biggest beneficiary from McNabb. Moss remains a fast, slippery WR that is at his best when he’s going vertically. You know, like that DeSean Jackson guy. He totaled 1167 yards and 9 TDs with McNabb last season. I could see Santana Moss putting up similar numbers.
Cooley is capable of returning to 2005-2008 form, a stretch where he averaged 786 yards and 5.5 TDs per season. McNabb hasn’t always been particularly generous to his tight ends (before Brent Celek, the best fantasy season a TE has had under his offense belongs to LJ Smith, to the tune of 611 yards and 5 TDs), so you may want to wait on Cooley during the draft. He had an injury-plagued season in 2009, so he’s likely to be available at a discount anyway, but unless he demonstrates excellent chemistry with McNabb in the preseason, tailor expectations.
The Philadelphia Eagles Offense-
You know that DeSean Jackson guy? If you’re in a keeper league and get a good offer, trade him. Seriously, though, Jackson slides way down the WR rankings. He was probably going to be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this upcoming season, but he slides back to the WR3 rank. Draft him alongside guys like Jerricho Cotchery and Devery Henderson.
Brent Celek should stay where he is on your draft board. It’s a remarkably deep field of TEs in 2010, so don’t draft Celek where he landed last year, as part of that Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark crew. A 750 yard, 5-8 TD season is very achievable, and probably beatable, stat line for him.
Jason Campbell-
Despite the unanimous dissatisfaction with Jason Campbell…he’s actually a very serviceable QB. Over the last three seasons, he has always completed over 60% of his passes and has had a 1+ TD:INT ratio. If he gets traded (especially to Carolina), he could be a strong fantasy backup or half of a QB platoon.
Anquan Boldin-
Personally, I’m one of those guys who buys low on WRs who change teams. For every New England Patriot Randy Moss, there’s three or four Seattle Seahawk Deion Branches, Seattle Seahawk TJ Houshmandzadehs or former-Seattle Seahawk Darrell Jacksons. For me, there’s too much risk associated with Boldin, relative to where he is likely to go during drafts.
While Joe Flacco is a solid quarterback, he’s deeply entrenched in a talented (and run-heavy) team with Derrick Mason, Ray Rice and a reemerging Todd Heap. He probably isn’t going to be in a position to have a 4500 yard, 30 TD season. Because of that, Boldin probably won’t get a big enough cut of Flacco’s relatively limited production to keep himself as a WR1, or even a WR2. Because of that, you should lower expectations for Boldin to the mid-WR3 range.
Santonio Holmes-
Santonio Holmes’ trade, as I’m sure you’ve read by now, was largely a message directed at Ben Roethlisberger. That message is that you can only be a dirty SOB ON the field. His move to the Jets is relatively big…but it’s being a bit overhyped (as every move by a non-Buffalo New York sports team is). Keep in mind that Mark Sanchez is easily the worst starting QB not involved in a QB controversy.
Yeah, yeah, I know, he’s still young and he can grow into being a QB that isn’t horrible. That doesn’t mean it’s not true right now. He put up a Delhomme-like season in 2009, putting up 2444 yards, 12 TDs and 20 INTs (and 3 FLs) while completing just 53.8% of his passes.
Unless you’re expecting Sanchez to improve in a massive way, you’ve got to wonder how much of a share Holmes can get, especially with Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards all fighting for catches as well. I don’t see Sanchez improving all that much, and because of that, I’m regarding Holmes as, at best, a Bye Week plug-in.
The Rest of the Steelers Offense-
Roethlisberger, for all his “indiscretions” remains a solid fantasy option (assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a long while, which probably won’t be the case). While the loss of Santonio Holmes will hurt his production, he’s still worthy of being part of a platoon in 10-team single QB leagues.
The big thing about Holmes being moved is that some other WR is going to have to step up his game in order to replace him. Roethlisberger is still more than capable of running a pass-happy offense, and it’s something the Steelers can still thrive with. The 1200 yards receiving that Holmes had in 2009 aren’t going to go away…so who could possibly be the guy to replace him?
At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, and we’ll just have to wait and see how the draft and preseason play out. Though I will say to keep an eye on Mike Wallace.
Brandon Marshall-
My arguments against Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin largely hold up with Brandon Marshall. Henne has potential, but he didn’t set the NFL ablaze in his first season as a starter (2878 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs). Granted, Marshall had success with Kyle Orton, who is not on top of many Hall of Fame ballots, but Orton has a level of veteran savvy not found in Henne. The Dolphins also remain a very run-heavy team with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, which further cuts into Henne’s, and Marshall’s, potential.
That said, Marshall is still a fantasy asset. Unlike Boldin and Holmes, there really isn’t any competition from that Miami Dolphins receiving corps. I would cap Henne’s production at around 3200 yards, which is enough to make Marshall useful, assuming he doesn’t end up getting suspended once again. He’s likely to end up as a strong WR3, though he could clearly beat that out. However, he’s still likely to be drafted by many as a WR1, and don’t be surprised if he ends up being drafted above guys like Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings. He’s still valuable, but do not reach for him.
The Broncos Offense
The loss of Brandon Marshall hurts the Broncos (statistically speaking, at least) more than it helps the Dolphins. The loss of Marshall is something that really impacts the entire Broncos offense.
First and foremost, it drops Kyle Orton’s value. Orton had his first genuinely good season last year, putting up 3802 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs while starting all 16 games that season, and completing 62.1% of his passes. Expect a strong dip in his numbers next season, probably to the tune of 3200 yards, 16 TDs, a mark that makes him a serviceable backup or plug-and-play, and nothing more.
The biggest thing, though, is that there is now a sweepstakes for who will become the top wideout in Denver. There are basically four major candidates to watch out for.
Eddie Royal was one of the biggest surprises in 2008, putting up 980 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season. Once Cutler got dealt to the Bears and Orton began helming the team, he fell deep down into the Box Scores. While he failed to gel with Orton last year, his speed and playmaking abilities didn’t disappear. He can potentially work his way back towards the top of the Broncos receiving corps on a Marshall-less team.
Eight-year veteran Jabar Gaffney set a career high in receiving yards last season, after being reunited with Josh McDaniels in Denver. Granted, 732 yards and 2 TDs isn’t exactly a jaw-dropping stat line, but he’s not that far off from being fantasy-relevant. He’s a potential last-round Hail Mary pick, depending on how the preseason plays out, though he could end up being a solid WR3 in deeper leagues.
Journeyman WR Brandon Lloyd is returning to the Broncos after playing just two games in 2009. Even though he wasn’t stellar in those two games, he was good enough to get the Broncos to re-sign him. He’s got history with Kyle Orton, and he has intermittently flashed legitimate skills throughout his career. That said, him putting up anything close to Marshall-like numbers is extraordinarily unlikely…but still possible.
Last but not least is a WR in the draft. We just have to wait and see what happens with the Broncos on draft day(s), but it’s something to watch for all my hardcore Fantasy Football brothers.
