Chicago Bears – Johnny Knox

Think back, if you will, to the New England Patriots, before Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Back when the Patriots were deep at the linebacker position.  Back when Tom Brady had to make people look good to win games.  Back before Eric Mangini ruined signal-“stealing” for everyone.  Back before all that, there was a revolving door of New England WRs who achieved fantasy relevance thanks to impressive QB play.  The 2009 Chicago Bears, in this way, bare a serious resemblance to the team from the Patriots’ Super Bowl years.  With the hyper-talented Jay Cutler helming an unsalted crew of landlubbers with questionable talent and minimal experience, it’s likely that at least one of them will float to the top, and give one lucky owner a decent fantasy WR.

The question, of course, is who?  The answer will likely come in a few months, when the preseason starts, when Jay actually begins building a rapport with his teammates in game-like situations.  That said, more than a few leagues are drafting already and it would just be lame for me to say “wait and see,” now wouldn’t it?  The somewhat obvious answer is Devin Hester, simply because he had a marginal degree of success last season, but I’m personally not buying into him.  A strong case can be made for any of the WRs behind him, and that’s where I’m going to be looking.

The guy I would be most willing to spend a pick on right now would be Johnny Knox.  During his time playing for Abilene Christian University, Knox totaled 30 TDs in 2007 and 2008, in no small part thanks to his lightning-quick 4.34 40-yard speed.  Thus far, he has shown some gumminess in his hands, which is a pleasant surprise coming from somebody likely on the midnight train to Special Teams.  The knock against Knox, though, is his relatively small stature.  At 6-0 even, and checking in at only 180 pounds, I doubt I’m the only one who envisions Knox getting jarred off-course by even the smallest touch from a defender.  Still, the big play ability is there, and that’s something we actually haven’t seen much of from Hester at the WR position.

If you’re in a deep competitive league drafting around now, the entire Chicago Bears’ receiving corps could very well be taken.  Somebody in that group of Knox, Juaquin Iglesias, Rashied Davis, Earl Bennett or Brandon Rideau is likely to get something around 800 yards and a handful of TDs (though they could easily exceed that if they actually have talent).  I’m not 100% positive it will be Knox.  But I’d bet on him over the others.  Consider him, and any other Chicago WR, a late-round flier.

Detroit Lions – Daunte Culepper

There are two things that always bring out the best in football players; revenge and money.  Daunte Culpepper’s career is at a crossroads, and this is probably his last chance to show that he can perform.  I’m sure he knows how close he is to the edge of the UFL pitfall.  In case you haven’t heard, the UFL doesn’t pay quite as well as the NFL does, and Daunte Culpepper wants to cash in.  As the on-paper starter for the Detroit Lions, he is looking at a decent pay day if he has a fair degree of success. 

In the three years Culpepper has spent away from Minnesota, he has been a member of three different teams and played at or below par on a consistent basis.  From 2006-2009, he has completed a humble 57% of his passes, and has an 11:14 TD:INT ratio.  Perhaps even worse, he has only rushed for 85 yards and 5 TDs over the past three years (three of those TDs came in one game), with a steady stream of injuries to his legs (knee, hammy) and shoulder.  His most recent season was easily the worst of his career, tallying 786 yards, 4 TDs, 6 INTs while completing just 52.2% of his passes. 

So why am I endorsing Culpepper?  The biggest reason is the simple fact he is back in “football shape,” for perhaps the first time since his catastrophic knee injury in 2005.  Even back when he was with the Miami Dolphins, people declared that Culpepper lacked work ethic, and had “team issues.”  For the first time since, there are plenty of reports discussing Culpepper’s renewed commitment to football.  The biggest thing being floated around at this time is his trim new figure, which comes from his losing 30 pounds.  Perhaps most interestingly is the serious confidence he has been talking with, “I feel this is the first time I’ve been 100% going into camp since 2004… I’ll continue to get better and better, and I felt better than I did in 2004. We’ll see what happens.”  Detroit coach Jim Schwartz concurs, “He was a marquee player in the league a few years ago, and then he had the knee injury and then a setback. He looks like he’s well on his way to getting back there.”

You also can’t ignore the generally good situation the Lions have offensively.  While the offensive line remains potentially terrible, having allowed over 50 sacks in every year since 2006, the various skill positions have become, possibly, their strongest since Barry Sanders’ retirement.  Obviously, the Lions have the Pop-Tart-like Calvin Johnson (he’s craaaazy good), but they also have a duo of semi-proven WRs in Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt alongside the talented-yet-injury-prone rookie, Derrick Williams.  They also drafted Brandon Pettigrew, who showed off that he is a better blocking TE than he is a pass-catcher which should help out pass-blocking a bit.  And Kevin Smith?  He’s still incredibly fast.

While this is all well and good, the QB position is particularly deep in Fantasy Football for 2009, and I would be insane to suggest you draft Culpepper as your starter in ten team, standard-scoring leagues.  That said, in sizable 2QB or 12-to-14 team leagues, Daunte is somebody I will be reaching for. 

Green Bay Packers – Donald Driver

Who built Stonehenge?  Are we alone in the universe?  Who really shot JFK?  Why is Donald Driver getting picked, on average, at 109^th overall?  These are among the world’s greatest mysteries.

In all seriousness, though, it absolutely perplexes me how a receiver looking for his sixth straight 1000 yard season is taken so late in the draft, behind Lance Moore, Hines Ward, Devin Hester, Lavernues Coles and Steve Breaston.  Nothing against any of these guys, but I don’t think any of them have outperformed Driver in terms of consistency and production in the last five years.  Granted, Driver has never been especially strong in the TD department.  He is yet to hit10 TDs on the season, and only pulled in 2 TDs in 2007.  Still, in terms of value, Donald Driver may very well be the biggest bargain in fantasy football this year.

Granted, this may be “the year” where he falls off the fantasy map.  He is 34, after all.  Still, he was 33 last year, and that didn’t keep him from putting up 1012 yards and 5 TDs.  For his draft position, he’s a top-flight WR3.  This is somebody I’m going for early and often.

Minnesota Vikings – Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is a bit of a trendy pick, and there’s good reason for it.  When you see news reports about how a team is redesigning their playbook for a single player, it’s easy to hop on the bandwagon.  But even so, the excitement over the uber-prospect’s potential hasn’t fully caught on in fantasy drafts.

Harvin’s incredible potential may or may not still be fresh in your mind from all the draft hype.  From his sticky hands to his electrifying speed, he oozes big play potential and Minnesota loves that.  The thing is, they already have a particularly speedy big-play receiver in Bernard Berrian (who averaged an insane 20.1 yards per reception in 2008).  This is where Harvin’s versatility comes in.  While playing for the University of Florida, he got numerous chances to show off his nearly utility-like skill, getting behind center for direct snapping and wildcattery (I made up that word, but so what?), doing reversals and lining up all over the place as a receiver. 

In terms of value, he’s a pretty good bargain for a high-profile rookie WR.  While experts often dissuade trigger-happy owners from chasing after the vogue rookie WRs, Harvin is coming late enough that he has the upside to put him over other players taken around him during drafts, such as Josh Morgan, fellow rookie Jeremy Maclin and the entire Giants receiving corps. 

His great versatility, at least in my mind, makes me think of the Vikings’ receivers as the Diet New England Patriots.  Because of Berrian’s established success as a deep threat, I foresee Harvin being assigned a bit more work in the short yardage game, giving him a bit of a boon in PPR leagues.  While rookie WRs can be seriously hit-or-miss, Harvin is as close to a sure thing as you can get at the WR position at that point in the draft.  I’d be willing to pencil him in as a strong bye week or matchup play if he ends up catching on with whoever the Minnesota QB is.  Somewhere around 800-900 total yards and a handful of TDs is very achievable.