Posted by spudlyff8fan in While I completely agree with much of Chris’ analysis (Crabtree should be addressed as a passable third receiver, but preferably a fourth, Sanchez was a huge move in the draft, etc.), I was strictly speaking from a fantasy football perspective.
Not to hate on Sanchez, but there has not been a particularly huge rookie QB in fantasy football since…uhhh…I can’t remember. Really, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were praised up and down (deservedly so) and after starting all sixteen games, the two of them still ended the season as the number 19 and 16 QBs, respectively. Really, Joe Flacco’s 2008 stat line (2900 yards, 14 TDs) is about where I would predict Sanchez to end up if he plays all sixteen games (which he probably won’t), which is generally unimpressive by fantasy standards. Yeah, the Jets picking up a franchise QB was probably the biggest move of the draft, but not close to the biggest fantasy move, by far.
On the other hand, we see rookie RBs succeed each year, which is why I put Knowshon Moreno at the top of my draft notes. Even if he isn’t elite, if he gets half of Denver’s carries, he’ll be a beyond-serviceable fantasy back and, using Chris’ own words to back me up, he could be a PPR wonder if he actually is anything like Kevin Faulk.
As for Michael Crabtree, my lumping him in with all those other rookie WRs is not an indictment by any means. Crabtree could be all sorts of great. But there’s always plenty to worry about when it comes to rookie WRs. In fact, the best rookie WRs in recent years are the guys who end up going undrafted in fantasy (like Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston, while Calvin Johnson and Santonio Holmes get taken in the mid, sometimes early rounds). So while Crabtree will go in round seven of your fantasy drafts, one of those other six receivers taken in the first round will probably be the rookie WR of the year.
Something we can all agree on, though, is that Al Davis is a crazy SOB. What a jackass.
Ryan is currently pushing for Sanchez to start in Week 1, and has come forward to say he was the one in the Ravens organization that pushed for Flacco to start the season. I believe Crabtree will do well because he plans on an offense that forces the defense to fear the rushing attack, and Vernon Davis, while not perfected in pass catching or route running, still changes the dynamics of safety coverage to avoid him burning them through the seam. Crabtree should be able to see a good amount of single coverage without effective safety help over the top. While Flacco did not have a great stat line, that was reflective of his offensive scheme, a run first offense. Ryan, even with a strong rushing threat in Turner, was able to put up good fantasy numbers several times last season. As for QB success before him, think of Big Ben his rookie year, or first year startes such as Palmer, Rivers, Cassel, etc. These later three guys had time to learn the offense, but then again, they were going through learning lumps as well. I’m not saying make Sanchez your guy, but hes definatly a viable number 2 option with better upside then most backups.
Fantasy backs as rookies tend to be more dependent on the lines they start behind rather than their individual merits. Think of the difference between Mcfadden’s and Peterson’s rookie lines.